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首页> 外文期刊>Issues in Science and Technology >Peaking Oil Production: Sooner Rather Than Later?
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Peaking Oil Production: Sooner Rather Than Later?

机译：石油产量达到顶峰：早晚？

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World demand for oil continues to increase, but Earth's endowment of oil is finite. Accordingly, geologists know that at some future date, conventional oil supply will no longer be capable of satisfying world demand; conventional oil production will have peaked and begun to decline. No one knows with certainty when peaking will occur, but a number of competent forecasters think it could be soon, which could result in unprecedented worldwide economic problems. Policymakers should be preparing now to ease the passage through this inevitable transition. The peaking of world oil production has been a matter of speculation from the very beginning of the modern oil era in the mid-1800s. In the early days, little was known about petroleum geology, so predictions of peaking were no more than uninformed guesses. Over time, geological understanding im- proved dramatically, and guessing gave way to more informed projections. Nevertheless, significant uncertainty still exists.
机译：世界对石油的需求继续增加，但是地球对石油的s赋是有限的。因此，地质学家知道，在将来的某个日子里，常规石油供应将不再能够满足世界需求。常规石油产量将达到顶峰并开始下降。没有人确切地知道什么时候会达到峰值，但是许多有能力的预报员认为这可能很快到来，这可能会导致前所未有的全球经济问题。决策者现在应该准备缓解这种不可避免的过渡的过程。从1800年代中期的现代石油时代开始，就一直在猜测世界石油产量达到顶峰。在早期，人们对石油地质知之甚少，因此对峰值的预测只不过是无根据的猜测。随着时间的流逝，对地质的了解得到了极大的改善，而猜测却被更明智的预测所取代。但是，仍然存在很大的不确定性。

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