Tackling Climate Change Requires Global Response

Alexis Livanos

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Tackling Climate Change Requires Global Response

机译：应对气候变化需要全球应对

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A global change monitoring system could effectively take the Earth's pulse in this era of climate change. Alexis Livanos argues that defence industry competition and innovation can deliver such a system In 1972 the noted mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz delivered an address before the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, DC, entitled 'Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas?' Decades before we started worrying about an ice-free Arctic, rising sea levels and storms such as Hurricane Katrina occurring with increasing frequency, Lorenz was postulating chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere, often characterised as the 'butterfly effect'. The idea was that the flapping of a butterfly's wings (a small perturbation in initial conditions) could create a disturbance that in the chaotic motion of the atmosphere almost inevitably would become amplified. Eventually it could change large-scale atmospheric motions and any long-term behaviour would become impossible to forecast deterministically. We are facing that prospect now. The complex dynamics of changing climate is making predictions of consequence ever more difficult. This dilemma is one of the most pressing of our times. Climate change alters our physical environment, which drives strategic, operational and tactical national security challenges around the globe.

机译：在这一气候变化时代，全球变化监测系统可以有效地把握地球的脉搏。亚历克西斯·利瓦诺斯（Alexis Livanos）辩称，国防工业的竞争和创新可以提供这样的系统。1972年，著名的数学家和气象学家爱德华·诺顿·洛伦兹（Edward Norton Lorenz）在华盛顿特区的美国科学促进会上发表了题为“可预测性：航空器的襟翼是否能弹奏？巴西的蝴蝶之翼在德克萨斯州掀起了龙卷风？数十年来，我们开始担心北极无冰，海平面上升和诸如卡特里娜飓风之类的风暴的发生频率越来越高，洛伦兹推测大气的混乱行为，通常被称为“蝴蝶效应”。这个想法是，蝴蝶翅膀的拍打（在初始状态下会有很小的扰动）会产生干扰，在大气的混沌运动中几乎不可避免地会被放大。最终，它可能改变大规模的大气运动，任何长期行为都将无法确定地进行预测。我们现在正面临这种前景。气候变化的复杂动态使对结果的预测变得越来越困难。这种困境是我们时代最紧迫的难题之一。气候变化改变了我们的自然环境，从而在全球范围内引发了战略，运营和战术方面的国家安全挑战。

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《Jane's Defence Weekly》 |2009年第1期|p.21|共1页
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Alexis Livanos;
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机译：地方对全球气候变化的反应：地方发展计划在气候变化管理中的作用。
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8. Variability of Wet and Dry Periods in the Upper Colorado River Basin and Possible Effects of Climate Change. Sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates to Climate Change. Global Climate Change Response Program [R] . Eddy, R. L. 1996

机译：科罗拉多河上游干湿期的变化及气候变化的可能影响。可能的最大降水估计对气候变化的敏感性。全球气候变化应对计划

Tackling Climate Change Requires Global Response

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