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Scenario two: Endgame

机译：方案二：残局

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An endgame scenario in which the Myan-mar government seeks to reassert sovereignty over the areas currently not under its control would probably result in a gradual approach by the Tatmadaw, with smaller and more isolated groups being attacked first before moving on to target the larger ones. The major difference between this and the low-intensity conflict scenario is that the Tatmadaw would engage in more sustained attacks that could persist throughout the rainy season. Signposts for this scenario include the deployment of significant numbers of additional troops and the utilisation of heavier weaponry, possibly including air power. Attacks could be indiscriminate in a further effort to undermine morale. This scenario is premised on a significant change of tactics by the Tatmadaw, possibly driven by the conviction that military success, similar to the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Sri Lankan military in May 2009, is possible. While the conflict setting in Myanmar's border areas differs from that in Sri Lanka, in that the Tatmadaw faces dozens of armed groups dispersed through difficult terrain, whereas the LTTE was the only insurgent group in Sri Lanka, the groups that have refused to sign up to the BGF programme or continue to fight have been marginalised into relatively confined and isolated spaces adjacent to the borders of China and Thailand. The vulnerability of these groups would increase were the two countries to curb cross-border movements.
机译：缅甸政府试图重新确立对目前不受其控制的地区的主权的最终局面可能会导致塔达摩逐渐采取行动，较小和较孤立的集团首先受到攻击，然后再瞄准较大的集团。这种情况与低强度冲突的情况之间的主要区别在于，Tatmadaw将进行更持久的袭击，这种袭击可能会持续到整个雨季。这种情况的路标包括部署大量额外部队和使用更重型的武器，其中可能包括空中力量。为了进一步打击士气可能会不加选择地发动攻击。这种情况的前提是Tadmadaw的战术发生重大变化，这可能是因为人们认为，军事成功是有可能的，类似于2009年5月斯里兰卡军队击败泰米尔伊拉姆猛虎解放组织（LTTE）。尽管缅甸边境地区的冲突情况与斯里兰卡的冲突情况有所不同，但达达摩面临着数十个散布在困难地形中的武装团体，而猛虎组织是斯里兰卡唯一的叛乱组织，但拒绝签署BGF计划或继续进行的战斗已被边缘化到毗邻中国和泰国边界的相对狭窄和孤立的空间。如果两国制止跨界运动，这些团体的脆弱性将会增加。

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    《Jane's intelligence review》 |2011年第6期|p.33-34|共2页
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