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Scenario one: Low-intensity conflict

机译：方案一：低强度冲突

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Under this scenario, the Tatmadaw would continue to launch limited dry season offensives against no more than one or two ethnic minority armed groups at a time, while progressing slowly in order to further marginalise larger groups. This would utilise tried-and-tested, divide-and-rule tactics, which would see the signing of fresh ceasefires with amenable groups (most likely the UWSA, NDAA, KIA and other groups that have profited economically from previous ceasefires). This represents the least risky option for the Tatmadaw in the absence of a political solution, especially given the significant logistical obstacles that it would be faced with if it were to carry out larger-scale offensives. This approach would allow the central government to continue making inroads against armed ethnic minority groups, while also being able to sustain its narrative of the prevention of the 'disintegration of the union', which would result in the military further consolidating power at the centre.
机译：在这种情况下，武装部队将继续一次针对不超过一个或两个少数民族武装团体发动有限的旱季进攻，同时进展缓慢，以进一步将更大的群体边缘化。这将利用久经考验的，分而治之的策略，这将使适度的团体（很有可能是UWSA，NDAA，起亚和其他从先前的停火中获得经济利益的团体）签署新的停火协议。在没有政治解决方案的情况下，这对塔达摩来说是风险最小的选择，尤其是考虑到如果要进行大规模攻势，它将面临巨大的后勤障碍。这种方法将使中央政府能够继续向武装的少数民族群体进发，同时也能够维持其关于防止“工会解体”的叙述，这将导致军事力量进一步巩固该中心的权力。

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    《Jane's intelligence review》 |2011年第6期|p.33|共1页
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