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After the shock Implications of the Japanese nuclear crisis

机译：冲击后日本核危机的影响

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Unlike the two serious accidents that occurred at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, the accident at Fukushima was caused by an extreme natural event beyond the plant's design basis. There will be questions as to whether that design basis was miscalculated and if so, why. If it is demonstrated that human factors did not significantly contribute to the accident, governments and industry may succeed in limiting the negative impact from the accident on nuclear programmes worldwide. The political fallout from the accident in Japan and other countries that heed public opinion will be magnified if it is revealed that actions by Japanese industry and authorities increased the risk of a catastrophic radiological accident at Fukushima. After Fukushima, most countries that already generate nuclear power will continue with their nuclear programmes. Their regulators will probably make adjustments in emergency preparedness and accident management to better protect against tsunamis, earthquakes and perhaps other external events, including terrorist attacks. Some older reactors will be shut down and some others may not be permitted to be relicensed for extended operation. A number of developing countries that had made plans to deploy power reactors before the accident will probably defer these ambitions. The measured response by nearly all governments to the accident so far might imply no major shifts in the global use of nuclear power, in light of the goals of climate change mitigation and meeting energy demand, which were not in sharp focus at the time of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. However, while investigations may find no major design flaw or human error, it will be harder to convince electorates than industry and government officials. With the images of Japan's nuclear disaster fresh in the memory, it may become politically more difficult for governments to convince their electorates that the benefits of nuclear power are worth the perceived risk.
机译：与三英里岛和切尔诺贝利发生的两次严重事故不同，福岛事故是由超出工厂设计基础的极端自然事件引起的。人们会怀疑该设计基准是否计算错误，如果计算错误，原因为何。如果证明人为因素并未对事故造成重大影响，则政府和工业界可能会成功地限制事故对全球核计划的负面影响。如果发现日本工业界和当局的行动增加了福岛发生灾难性放射性事故的风险，那么引起公众舆论关注的日本和其他国家/地区事故的政治后果将被放大。在福岛之后，大多数已经产生核能的国家将继续其核计划。他们的监管机构可能会调整应急准备和事故管理，以更好地防范海啸，地震以及其他外部事件，包括恐怖袭击。一些较旧的反应堆将被关闭，而另一些则可能不被许可长期运行。一些在事故发生前已计划部署动力反应堆的发展中国家可能会推迟这些雄心壮志。鉴于减缓气候变化和满足能源需求的目标，到目前为止，几乎所有国家政府对事故的反应明确，都可能意味着全球核电使用量不会发生重大变化，这在三国之时并未成为关注重点。迈尔岛和切尔诺贝利。但是，尽管调查可能没有发现重大的设计缺陷或人为错误，但要说服选民比使行业和政府官员更难。随着人们对日本核灾难的印象记忆犹新，各国政府在政治上可能难以说服其选民使核电的好处值得其所认为的风险。

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