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Evaluation of Historical Leaf Area Index Change in the MIROC-ESM

机译：MIROC-ESM中历史叶面积指数变化的评估

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摘要

The global carbon cycle has feedbacks on the global climate, and climate-carbon cycle interactions are explicitly represented in earth system models (ESMs). In ESMs, leaf area index (LAI) is a key variable for projecting future environmental changes, but it might be one of the most difficult to precisely predict. In this research, historical LAI changes reproduced in the ESM named "Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate ESM (MIROC-ESM)" are analyzed, focusing on impacts of CO_2 fertilization effects, climate change, and land-use change. The model showed reasonable seasonality of LAI in global scale although the absolute value of this index was larger than the observation. The CO_2 fertilization effect increases global LAI, and this was found to be nearly ubiquitous. However, an LAI increase is partially offset by the influence of historical climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to these environmental change impacts, human perturbations of the carbon cycle through land-use change dramatically altered global LAI. Although land-use change may have both positive and negative impacts on LAI, most regions showed negative impacts in the historical simulation, and land-use change had greater impacts than environmental change. Further study is recommended, such as long-term observation, modeling, and simulations of historical LAI change, toward improving modeling of future climate change.
机译：全球碳循环具有对全球气候的反馈，气候-碳循环相互作用在地球系统模型（ESM）中得到了明确表示。在ESM中，叶面积指数（LAI）是预测未来环境变化的关键变量，但它可能是最难精确预测的变量之一。在这项研究中，分析了ESM中复制的历史LAI变化，该变化名为“气候ESM跨学科研究模型（MIROC-ESM）”，重点研究了CO_2施肥效应，气候变化和土地利用变化的影响。尽管该指数的绝对值大于观测值，但该模型在全球范围内显示了合理的LAI季节性。 CO_2的施肥效应增加了全球LAI，这几乎无处不在。然而，人为温室气体排放引起的历史气候变化的影响部分抵消了LAI的增加。除了这些环境变化影响之外，人类通过土地利用变化对碳循环的干扰也极大地改变了全球LAI。尽管土地利用变化可能对LAI产生正面和负面影响，但大多数地区在历史模拟中显示出负面影响，并且土地利用变化的影响大于环境变化。建议进一步研究，例如长期观测，建模和历史LAI变化的模拟，以改善未来气候变化的建模。

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