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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of advances in management research >Evolution and control of artificial superintelligence (ASI): a management perspective
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Evolution and control of artificial superintelligence (ASI): a management perspective

机译：人工超智能（ASI）的演变和控制：管理的角度

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to address both the evolutionary and control aspects associated with the management of artificial superintelligence. Through empirical analysis, the authors examine the diffusion pattern of those high technologies that can be considered as forerunners to the adoption of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Design/methodology/approach - The evolutionary perspective is divided into three parts, based on major developments in this area, namely, robotics, automation and artificial intelligence (AT). The authors then provide several dynamic models of the possible future evolution of superintelligence. These include diffusion modeling, predator-prey models and hostility models. The problem of control in superintelligence is reviewed next, where the authors discuss Asimov's Laws and IEEE initiative. The authors also provide an empirical analysis of the application of diffusion modeling to three technologies from the industries of manufacturing, communication and energy, which can be considered as potential precursors to the evolution of the field of ASI. The authors conclude with a case study illustrating emerging solutions in the form of long-term social experiments to address the problem of control in superintelligence. Findings - The results from the empirical analysis of the manufacturing, communication and energy sectors suggest that the technology diffusion model fits well with the data of robotics, telecom and solar installations till date. The results suggest a gradual diffusion process, like any other high technology. Thus, there appears to be no threat of "existential catastrophe" (Bostrom, 2014). The case study indicates that any future threat can be pre-empted by some long-term social measures. Originality/value - This paper contributes to the emerging stream of artificial superintelligence. As humanity comes closer to grappling with the important question of the management and control of this technology for the future, it is important that modeling efforts be made to understand the extant perspective of the development of the high-technology diffusion. Presently, there are relatively few such efforts available in the literature.
机译：目的-本文的目的是解决与人工超级智能管理相关的进化和控制方面。通过经验分析，作者检查了那些可以视为采用人工超级智能技术（ASI）的先驱者的高科技的扩散模式。设计/方法/方法-基于该领域的主要发展，进化观点分为三个部分，即机器人技术，自动化和人工智能（AT）。然后，作者提供了一些有关超级智能未来可能发展的动态模型。这些包括扩散模型，捕食者－猎物模型和敌对模型。接下来将讨论超级智能中的控制问题，作者将讨论阿西莫夫的定律和IEEE倡议。作者还提供了将扩散模型应用于制造，通信和能源行业的三项技术的经验分析，这些技术可以被视为ASI领域发展的潜在先驱。作者以一个案例研究作为结束，该案例研究以长期社会实验的形式说明了新兴解决方案，以解决超级智能中的控制问题。调查结果-对制造业，通信业和能源业的经验分析结果表明，技术扩散模型非常适合迄今为止的机器人技术，电信和太阳能安装数据。结果表明，与任何其他高科技一样，它是一个逐渐扩散的过程。因此，似乎没有“生存灾难”的威胁（Bostrom，2014）。案例研究表明，任何长期威胁都可以通过一些长期的社会措施来避免。原创性/价值-本文为人工超级智能的兴起做出了贡献。随着人类越来越接近于应对该技术在未来的管理和控制这一重要问题，进行建模工作以理解高科技扩散发展的现存观点非常重要。当前，在文献中可用的这种努力相对较少。

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