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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of African Earth Sciences >Model uncertainty of various settlement estimation methods in shallow tunnels excavation; case study: Qom subway tunnel
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Model uncertainty of various settlement estimation methods in shallow tunnels excavation; case study: Qom subway tunnel

机译：浅埋隧道开挖中各种沉降估算方法的模型不确定性；案例研究：库姆地铁隧道

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摘要

In addition to the numerous planning and executive challenges, underground excavation in urban areas is always followed by certain destructive effects especially on the ground surface; ground settlement is the most important of these effects for which estimation there exist different empirical, analytical and numerical methods. Since geotechnical models are associated with considerable model uncertainty, this study characterized the model uncertainty of settlement estimation models through a systematic comparison between model predictions and past performance data derived from instrumentation. To do so, the amount of surface settlement induced by excavation of the Qom subway tunnel was estimated via empirical (Peck), analytical (Loganathan and Poulos) and numerical (FDM) methods; the resulting maximum settlement value of each model were 1.86, 2.02 and 1.52 cm, respectively. The comparison of these predicted amounts with the actual data from instrumentation was employed to specify the uncertainty of each model. The numerical model outcomes, with a relative error of 3.8%, best matched the reality and the analytical method, with a relative error of 27.81, yielded the highest level of model uncertainty. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：除了众多的规划和执行挑战之外，城市地区的地下挖掘总是伴随着某些破坏性影响，尤其是在地面上。地面沉降是这些影响中最重要的，对于这些影响，估计存在不同的经验，分析和数值方法。由于岩土模型具有相当大的模型不确定性，因此本研究通过对模型预测与从仪器获得的过去性能数据之间的系统比较来表征沉降估算模型的模型不确定性。为此，通过经验（Peck），分析（Loganathan和Poulos）和数值（FDM）方法估算了Qom地铁隧道开挖引起的地面沉降量。每个模型的最大沉降值分别为1.86、2.02和1.52 cm。将这些预测量与仪器的实际数据进行比较，以指定每个模型的不确定性。数值模型结果的相对误差为3.8％，与实际情况最匹配，分析方法的相对误差为27.81，是模型不确定性的最高水平。 （C）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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