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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of applied econometrics >The government spending multiplier at the zero lower hound: International evidence from historical data
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The government spending multiplier at the zero lower hound: International evidence from historical data

机译：政府在零下猎犬的支出乘数：来自历史数据的国际证据

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摘要

Based on a large historical panel dataset, this paper provides evidence that the government spending multiplier can be significantly higher when interest rates are at or near the zero lower bound (ZLB). We estimate multipliers that are as high as 1.5 during ZLB episodes but small and statistically indistinguishable from zero during normal times. Our results are robust to different definitions of ZLB episodes, alternative ways of identifying government spending shocks, controlling for the exchange rate regime, and other potentially important state variables. In particular, we show that the difference in multipliers is not driven by multipliers being higher during periods of economic slack.
机译：基于大型历史面板数据集，本文提供了证据表明，当利率处于或附近零下限（ZLB）附近，政府支出乘数可以明显更高。 我们估计ZLB剧集期间高达1.5的乘数，但在正常时期的零中小且统计上无法区分。 我们的结果对ZLB剧集的不同定义具有强大的策略，识别政府支出休克的替代方式，控制汇率制度以及其他潜在的重要状态变量。 特别地，我们表明乘法器的差异不是在经济懈怠期间更高的乘法器推动。

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