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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of applied econometrics >SMOOTH QUANTILE-BASED MODELING OF BRAND SALES, PRICE AND PROMOTIONAL EFFECTS FROM RETAIL SCANNER PANELS
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SMOOTH QUANTILE-BASED MODELING OF BRAND SALES, PRICE AND PROMOTIONAL EFFECTS FROM RETAIL SCANNER PANELS

机译：基于平滑数量的零售扫描仪面板的品牌销售，价格和促销效果建模

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摘要

Semiparametric quantile regression is employed to flexibly estimate sales response for frequently purchased consumer goods. Using retail store-level data, we compare the performance of models with and without monotonic smoothing for fit and prediction accuracy. We find that (a) flexible models with monotonicity constraints imposed on price effects dominate both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons while being robust even at the boundaries of the price distribution when data is sparse; (b) quantile-based confidence intervals are much more accurate compared to least-squares-based intervals; (c) specifications reflecting that managers may not have exact knowledge about future competitive pricing perform extremely well.
机译：使用半参数分位数回归来灵活估算经常购买的消费品的销售响应。使用零售商店级别的数据，我们比较了具有和不具有单调平滑的模型的性能，以拟合和预测准确性。我们发现：（a）对价格影响施加单调性约束的灵活模型在样本内和样本外比较中均占主导地位，即使在数据稀疏的情况下，即使在价格分布的边界处也具有鲁棒性； （b）与基于最小二乘法的区间相比，基于分位数的置信区间要准确得多； （c）反映经理人可能不完全了解未来竞争性定价的规格表现非常出色。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of applied econometrics》 |2014年第6期|1007-1028|共22页
  • 作者

    HARRY HAUPT; KATHRIN KAGERER; WINFRIED J. STEINER;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Statistics, University of Passau, Innstr. 27, 94032 Passau, Germany;

    Faculty of Business, Economics and Management Information Systems, University of Regensburg, Germany;

    Department of Marketing, Clausthal University of Technology, Clausthal-Zellerfeld, Germany;

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