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首页> 外文期刊>Zeitschrift fur Angewandte Mathematik und Mechanik >Applying Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models for Predicting, Detecting and Specifying Climate Change
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Applying Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models for Predicting, Detecting and Specifying Climate Change

机译：应用海洋-大气耦合模型预测，发现和确定气候变化

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摘要

Detailed climate models which feature realistic atmosphere and ocean models are applied for several purposes: Firstly, they are an invaluable tool for understanding the dynamics of the earth's climate system. Secondly, to some extent they allow for the description of climate on large spatial scales, and the possibility to envisage the climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO_2 and sulfur. These model simulations are an essential tool for detecting climate change in observations. It is shown that the observed climate change coincides with model scenarios and disagrees (with a certain statistical risk) with the notion of natural climate variability unrelated to anthropogenic forcing. However, for applying model scenarios to estimate the damages associated with climate change, regional specifications are needed. Such information is not directly available from the climate model output but may be obtained by various "downscaling" techniques.
机译：详细的气候模型具有现实的大气和海洋模型，可用于以下几个目的：首先，它们是了解地球气候系统动力学的宝贵工具。其次，在某种程度上，它们允许在较大的空间范围内描述气候，并可以设想由人为排放的CO_2和硫引起的气候变化。这些模型模拟是检测观测资料中气候变化的重要工具。结果表明，观测到的气候变化与模型情景相吻合，不同意（具有一定的统计风险）与人为强迫无关的自然气候变异性概念。但是，为了应用模型情景来估计与气候变化相关的损害，需要区域规范。此类信息不能直接从气候模型输出中获得，而可以通过各种“缩小比例”技术获得。

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