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A Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the cost of postponing the cyclo-cross national championships

机译：一种贝叶斯分层模型，用于估计推迟全国跨自行车锦标赛的费用

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摘要

In early January 2015, the multi-event national cyclo-cross bicycle races were set to take place in Austin, Texas. Cyclo-cross has a rich history in this country, and throughout the world, attracting huge crowds and competitors. Being primarily a winter sport, these athletes often compete in harsh conditions, which include rain, snow, mud, and revel in the excitement that comes with such elements. Unfortunately, the competition was postponed mid-event when a local arborist group protested to the parks department. The issue: there was too much mud, in an event where many spectators and racers alike hope for such conditions. For many competitors, the postponement generated additional expenses, such as flights, hotels, and car rentals. Although people on opposite sides of the debate may greatly disagree, we instead focus on the competitors themselves. We analyze the financial impact of the disagreement using a hierarchical Bayesian mixed model which accounts for heterogeneity within the costs endured by the event's participants.
机译：2015年1月上旬，多项目全国自行车越野自行车比赛定于德克萨斯州奥斯汀举行。越野摩托车在这个国家和全世界都有着悠久的历史，吸引了众多的人群和竞争者。这些运动员主要是一项冬季运动，经常在严酷的条件下比赛，其中包括雨，雪，泥泞和陶醉于此类元素带来的兴奋中。不幸的是，当当地的树艺家团体向公园部门抗议时，比赛被推迟了。问题是：如果有很多观众和赛车手都希望这样的情况，那么泥土太多了。对于许多竞争对手而言，延期产生了额外的费用，例如航班，酒店和汽车租赁。尽管辩论的对立面的人可能会大相径庭，但我们将注意力集中在竞争对手本身上。我们使用分层贝叶斯混合模型分析分歧的财务影响，该模型解释了事件参与者承受的成本内的异质性。

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