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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of applied statistics >Bayesian semi-parametric analysis of Poisson change-point regression models: application to policy-making in Cali, Colombia
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Bayesian semi-parametric analysis of Poisson change-point regression models: application to policy-making in Cali, Colombia

机译：泊松变化点回归模型的贝叶斯半参数分析：在哥伦比亚卡利的决策中的应用

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摘要

A Poisson regression model with an offset assumes a constant baseline rate after accounting for measured covariates, which may lead to biased estimates of coefficients in an inhomogeneous Poisson process. To correctly estimate the effect of time-dependent covariates, we propose a Poisson change-point regression model with an offset that allows a time-varying baseline rate. When the non-constant pattern of a log baseline rate is modeled with a non-parametric step function, the resulting semi-parametric model involves a model component of varying dimensions and thus requires a sophisticated varying-dimensional inference to obtain the correct estimates of model parameters of a fixed dimension. To fit the proposed varying-dimensional model, we devise a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo-type algorithm based on partial collapse. The proposed model and methods are used to investigate the association between the daily homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, and the policies that restrict the hours during which the legal sale of alcoholic beverages is permitted. While simultaneously identifying the latent changes in the baseline homicide rate which correspond to the incidence of sociopolitical events, we explore the effect of policies governing the sale of alcohol on homicide rates and seek a policy that balances the economic and cultural dependencies on alcohol sales to the health of the public.
机译：考虑了协变量后，具有偏移量的Poisson回归模型假定基线速率恒定，这可能导致在不均匀的Poisson过程中系数的估计偏差。为了正确地估计时间相关协变量的影响，我们提出了一种Poisson变更点回归模型，该模型具有允许时变基线速率的偏移量。当使用非参数阶跃函数对对数基线速率的非恒定模式进行建模时，所得的半参数模型涉及尺寸变化的模型组件，因此需要复杂的尺寸变化推理来获得模型的正确估计固定尺寸的参数。为了适应所提出的变维模型，我们设计了一种基于局部塌陷的最新马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛型算法。提议的模型和方法用于调查哥伦比亚卡利的每日凶杀率与限制合法销售酒精饮料的时段的政策之间的关联。在同时确定与社会政治事件发生率相对应的基线凶杀率的潜在变化的同时，我们探索了管制酒精销售的政策对凶杀率的影响，并寻求平衡经济和文化对酒精销售与毒品依赖的政策。公众健康。

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