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Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

机译:使用广义线性混合模型从当前状态数据估算感染力

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Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest -for estimating the force of infection from serological data -the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.
机译:根据风疹,英国的腮腺炎和比利时的水痘的血清流行率数据,我们显示出如何使用广义线性混合模型(McCulloch和Searle)来估计感染力,易感个体感染的年龄特定比率,2001)。通过涉及固定和随机效应的惩罚样条对感染力对年龄的依赖性进行建模,使我们能够使用广义线性混合模型技术来估计给定年龄之前的累计感染概率和感染力。此外,这些模型允许自动选择平滑参数。估计感染力的平滑度会受到打结次数和所使用的罚样条程度的影响。为了确定这些,使用不同数量的打结和不同程度,并比较结果以建立这种灵敏度。不同节数和不同程度的多项式样条库的模拟建议-为了从血清学数据估计感染力-使用基于10个节的二次惩罚样条。

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