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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Asian earth sciences >Influence of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w 7.9) on the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on neighboring faults
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Influence of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w 7.9) on the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on neighboring faults

机译：2008年汶川地震（M_w 7.9）对邻近断层未来地震发生概率的影响

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摘要

The Longquan-Shan fault and the Huya fault are two major neighboring faults of the Longmen-Shan fault zone where the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M_w 7.9) occurred. To study the influence of the Wenchuan event on these two active faults, we calculate changes of Coulomb stress on the Longquan-Shan fault and the Huya fault caused by the Wenchuan mainshock. Our results indicate that the Coulomb stress in the northern section (Zone A) of the Longquan-Shan fault is increased by 0.07-0.10 bars, that in the middle section (Zone B) by 0.04-0.11 bars, and that in the southern section (Zone C) shows almost no change. For the Huya fault, the Coulomb stress is decreased by 0.01-0.03 bars in the northern section (Zone A), 0.10-0.35 bars in the middle section (Zone B), and nearly 0.5 bars in the southern section (Zone C). The epicenter distribution of small earthquakes (M_t ≥ 1.5) on the Longquan-Shan fault and the Huya fault after the Wenchuan earthquake is consistent with the distribution of the Coulomb stress change. This implies that the Wenchuan earthquake may have triggered small events on the Longquan-Shan fault, but inhibited those on the Huya fault. We then use the rate/state friction law to calculate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the study region for the next decade. They include the distribution of fa-values, magnitude of completeness (M_c), the background seismicity rate, a value of Aσ_n and the duration for the transient effect (t_a) in the study region. We also estimate the earthquake occurrence probabilities on the neighboring faults after the Wenchuan earthquake. Our results show that, the occurrence probability of future earthquakes in the Longquan-Shan has a slight increase, being 7% for M > 5.0 shocks during the next decade, but the earthquake probability in the Huya region is reduced obviously, being 5-20%, 7-26% and 3-9% for M > 5.0 shocks during the next decade in sections A, B and C of the Huya fault, respectively.
机译：龙泉山断裂和虎牙断裂是龙门山断裂带的两个主要相邻断裂，2008年5月12日发生汶川地震（M_w 7.9）。为了研究汶川地震对这两个活动断裂的影响，我们计算了由汶川主震引起的龙泉山断裂和虎牙断裂的库仑应力变化。我们的结果表明，龙泉山断裂带北部（A区）的库仑应力增加了0.07-0.10巴，中间区域（B区）的库伦应力增加了0.04-0.11巴，南部区域（区域C）显示几乎没有变化。对于虎牙断裂，库仑应力在北部（A区）降低了0.01-0.03巴，在中部（B区）降低了0.10-0.35巴，在南部（C区）降低了近0.5巴。汶川地震后龙泉山断裂和虎牙断裂上的小地震（M_t≥1.5）的震中分布与库仑应力变化的分布一致。这意味着汶川地震可能触发了龙泉山断裂的小事件，但抑制了虎牙断裂的事件。然后，我们使用速率/状态摩擦定律来计算研究区域未来十年未来地震的发生概率。它们包括fa值的分布，完整性的大小（M_c），背景地震活动率，Aσ_n的值以及研究区域中瞬变效应的持续时间（t_a）。我们还估计了汶川地震后邻近断层的地震发生概率。我们的结果表明，未来十年龙泉山未来地震发生的可能性会略有增加，在接下来的十年中，M> 5.0级地震的发生概率为7％，而虎牙地区的地震发生概率则明显降低，为5-20在接下来的十年中，呼亚断裂A，B和C段的M> 5.0冲击分别为％，7-26％和3-9％。

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