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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists >Elite Influence on Climate Change Skepticism: Evidence from Close Gubernatorial Elections
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Elite Influence on Climate Change Skepticism: Evidence from Close Gubernatorial Elections

机译：精英对气候变化怀疑论的影响：州长选举的证据

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Many theorize that public opinion follows political elite on climate change skepticism, yet evidence of a causal link is lacking. I use a regression discontinuity design to establish the impact of the political party of a governor on constituents' global warming beliefs. I find that, relative to the election of a Democratic governor, the election of a Republican governor significantly decreases the probability of a Republican constituent believing in global warming by approximately 11-15 percentage points; there is no significant impact on Democratic constituents. I also find a negative effect of a Republican governor on belief in human-caused global warming that does not differ by constituent partisan affiliation. These results provide one explanation for the increased political polarization in global warming beliefs despite the scientific consensus. Belief formation often plays an important role in political economy models, so these findings also have implications for implementing climate change policy.
机译：许多理论认为，舆论是跟随政治精英对气候变化持怀疑态度的，但缺乏因果关系的证据。我使用回归不连续性设计来确定州长政党对选民的全球变暖信念的影响。我发现，相对于民主州长的选举，共和党州长的选举大大降低了共和党人相信全球变暖的可能性，降低了大约11-15个百分点。对民主党选民没有重大影响。我还发现，共和党州长对人为造成的全球变暖的信念产生了负面影响，但党派之间的隶属关系并没有不同。这些结果提供了一种解释，尽管有科学共识，但全球变暖信仰中的政治两极化加剧。信仰形成通常在政治经济学模型中起着重要作用，因此这些发现也对实施气候变化政策有影响。

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