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The Effect of Leaded Aviation Gasoline on Blood Lead in Children

机译：航空含铅汽油对儿童血铅的影响

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摘要

Lead is a neurotoxin with developmentally harmful effects in children. In the United States, over half the current flow of lead into the atmosphere is attributable to lead-formulated aviation gasoline (avgas), used in a large fraction of piston-engine aircraft. Various public interest firms have petitioned the EPA to find endan-germent from and regulate lead emitted by piston-engine aircraft, though the EPA has so far ruled against such petitions. To address an EPA request for more evidence, we construct a novel data set that links time and spatially referenced blood lead data from over a million children to 448 nearby airports in Michigan. Across a series of tests, and adjusting for other known sources of lead exposure, we find that child blood lead levels (1) increase dose-responsively in proximity to airports, (2) decline measurably among children sampled in the months after 9/11, (3) increase dose-responsively in the flow of piston-engine aircraft traffic, (4) increase in the percentage of prevailing wind days drifting in the direction of a child's residential location, and (5) behave intuitively and significantly when considering two-way and three-way interactions of our main treatment variables. To quantify the policy relevance of the results we provide a conservative estimate of the social damages attributable to avgas consumption. Damages are at least $10 per gallon, which can be compared to a pump price of about $6 per gallon.
机译：铅是一种神经毒素，对儿童具有发育危害。在美国，超过一半的当前流入大气的铅可归因于在大部分活塞发动机飞机中使用的铅制航空汽油（avgas）。尽管迄今为止EPA一直反对此类请求，但许多公益组织已向EPA请求保护其活塞发动机飞机排放的铅并调节其排​​放的铅。为了满足EPA要求提供更多证据的要求，我们构建了一个新颖的数据集，该数据集将时间和空间参考的血铅数据从100万以上的孩子连接到密歇根州的448个附近机场。在一系列测试中，并针对其他已知的铅暴露源进行了调整，我们发现儿童血铅水平（1）在机场附近的剂量响应性增加，（2）在9/11后的几个月中抽样的儿童中可测得的血铅水平显着下降，（3）随剂量增加活塞式飞机的流量，（4）沿儿童居住地方向漂移的主要风日百分比增加，（5）考虑到两个主要治疗变量的双向和三向相互作用。为了量化结果的政策相关性，我们提供了对因使用汽油而造成的社会损害的保守估计。损害至少为每加仑10美元，而泵的价格约为每加仑6美元。

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