The effect of mergers on US bank risk in the short run and in the long run

Brealey Richard A.; Cooper Ian A.; Kaplanis Evi

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The effect of mergers on US bank risk in the short run and in the long run

机译：从短期和长期来看，兼并对美国银行风险的影响

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We examine changes in risk following US bank mergers in the period 1981-2014. Short-run increases in acquirer risk following mergers occur only in the first few mergers undertaken by the same acquirer, and only in systematic risk. The equity volatility of acquirers does not increase. Using a new approach to measure the long-run effect we find that these results persist, consistent with banks maintaining a constant level of total equity risk in the long run. Constant acquirer risk means that all diversification benefits of the mergers are dissipated. We measure the loss of diversification associated with mergers and find it to be 40% of the risk level in 1981. Almost all of this occurred prior to 2004. In addition, there has been a large increase in correlations between the largest banks, much of which has come from sources other than mergers. The results are inconsistent with these mergers being motivated by the 'too big to fail' put. They suggest that if one wanted to reduce the risk of the banking system by demerging major banks one would have to reach back to the structure that existed before 2004. Simply reversing recent mergers would not have much effect on stock market measures of risk. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

机译：我们研究了1981-2014年美国银行合并后的风险变化。合并后收购方风险的短期增加仅在同一收购方进行的前几次合并中发生，并且仅在系统风险中发生。收购方的股权波动不会增加。使用一种新的方法来衡量长期影响，我们发现这些结果持续存在，这与银行从长远来看保持恒定的总股本风险水平相一致。持续的收购方风险意味着并购的所有多元化收益均被消除。我们测量与合并相关的多元化损失，并发现其损失在1981年为风险水平的40％。几乎所有此类损失都发生在2004年之前。此外，大型银行之间的相关性也大大增加，大部分除了合并以外，其他来源也有。结果与这些合并的动机是“太大而不能倒”的动机不一致。他们建议，如果想通过合并大型银行来降低银行体系的风险，则必须回到2004年以前的结构。简单地逆转最近的合并对股票市场的风险衡量不会有太大影响。（C）2019 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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来源
《Journal of banking & finance》 |2019年第11期|105660.1-105660.18|共18页
作者
Brealey Richard A.; Cooper Ian A.; Kaplanis Evi;
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London Business Sch Sussex Pl Regents Pk London NW1 4SA England;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Bank mergers; Bank risk; Bank regulation; Too big to fail; Concentration-fragility;

机译：银行合并;银行风险;银行监管;太大而不能失败;浓度脆弱性;

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3. Merger and Its Effect on Performance of Indian Public Sector Bank: A Case Study on Merger of Nedungadi Bank and Punjab National Bank [J] . Gopal Chandra Mondal International Journal of African and Asian Studies . 2016,第6期

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The effect of mergers on US bank risk in the short run and in the long run

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