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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >How Affect Shapes Risky Choice: Distorted Probability Weighting Versus Probability Neglect
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How Affect Shapes Risky Choice: Distorted Probability Weighting Versus Probability Neglect

机译：情感如何影响风险选择：概率权重与概率忽略

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People's choices between prospects with relatively affect-rich outcomes (e.g., medical side effects) can diverge markedly from their choices between prospects with relatively affect-poor outcomes (e.g., monetary losses). We investigate the cognitive mechanisms underlying this affect gap in risky choice. One possibility is that affect-rich prospects give rise to more distortion in probability weighting. Another is that they lead to the neglect of probabilities. To pit these two possibilities against each other, we fitted cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to the choices of individual participants, separately for choices between options with affect-rich outcomes (adverse medical side effects) and options with affect-poor outcomes (monetary losses); additionally, we tested a simple model of probability neglect, the minimax rule. The results indicated a qualitative difference in cognitive mechanisms between the affect-rich and affect-poor problems. Specifically, in affect-poor problems, the large majority of participants were best described by CPT; in affect-rich problems, the proportion of participants best described by the minimax rule was substantially higher. The affect gap persisted even when affect-rich outcomes were supplemented by numerical information, thus providing no support for the thesis that choices in affect-rich and affect-poor problems diverge because the information provided in the former is nonnumerical. Our findings suggest that the traditional expectation-based framework for modeling risky decision making may not readily generalize to affect-rich choices. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：人们在具有相对较高影响的结果（例如，医学副作用）的前景之间的选择可能与在具有相对较低影响的结果（例如，金钱损失）的前景之间的选择明显不同。我们调查潜在影响风险选择差距的认知机制。一种可能性是，影响力丰富的前景会导致概率加权的更多失真。另一个是它们导致概率的忽略。为了使这两种可能性相互抗衡，我们将累积前景理论（CPT）应用于个体参与者的选择，分别针对具有丰富情感结局的选项（不良医学副作用）和具有不良情感结局的选项（货币损失）之间的选择）;此外，我们测试了概率忽略的简单模型，即极大极小值规则。结果表明，情感丰富问题和情感贫乏问题之间在认知机制上存在质的差异。具体而言，在情感贫乏的问题中，CPT最好地描述了大多数参与者。在情感丰富的问题​​中，由极小极大法则最好地描述的参与者比例大大提高。即使通过数字信息补充了富情感结局，情感差距仍然存在，因此，对于富情感问题和贫情感问题的选择存在差异的论点没有任何支持，因为前者提供的信息是非数字的。我们的发现表明，用于建模风险决策的传统基于期望的框架可能无法轻易地推广到影响丰富的选择。版权所有（c）2015 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

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