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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >The Effect of Temporal Distance on Attitudes toward imprecise Probabilities and Imprecise Outcomes
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The Effect of Temporal Distance on Attitudes toward imprecise Probabilities and Imprecise Outcomes

机译：时间距离对不精确概率和不精确结果态度的影响

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Many personal, managerial, and societal decisions involve uncertain or ambiguous consequences that will occur in the future. Yet, previous empirical research on ambiguity preferences has focused mainly on decisions with immediate outcomes. To close this gap in the literature, this paper examines ambiguity attitudes toward future prospects, particularly how they may differ from the attitudes toward comparable prospects in the present. On the basis of a recent paradigm, we first distinguish between two types of ambiguity: imprecise probabilities and imprecise outcomes. Then, in accordance with construal level theory, which shows that temporal distance increases the relative importance of outcomes over probabilities in evaluating prospects, we conjecture that temporal distance would moderate attitudes toward imprecise probabilities but amplify attitudes toward imprecise outcomes. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that when the prospects are in the future, individuals are less averse toward imprecise probabilities and more seeking toward imprecise outcomes. However, the effect is most prominent for prospects where both the probability and outcome dimensions are concurrently imprecise. The paper ends with a discussion on how dimension salience may have contributed to this result.
机译：许多个人，管理和社会决策涉及不确定的或模棱两可的后果，这些后果将在未来发生。然而，先前关于歧义偏好的实证研究主要集中在具有即时结果的决策上。为了缩小文献中的差距，本文研究了对未来前景的歧义态度，特别是它们与当前对可比前景的态度可能有何不同。在最近的范式的基础上，我们首先区分两种类型的歧义：不精确的概率和不精确的结果。然后，根据解释水平理论，该理论表明时间距离在评估前景中增加了结果相对于概率的相对重要性，我们推测时间距离会缓和对不精确概率的态度，但会放大对不精确结果的态度。通过一系列实验，我们证明了当前景广阔时，个人对不精确概率的厌恶程度会更高，而对不精确结果的追求则会更大。但是，对于概率和结果维度同时不精确的前景，效果最为显着。本文最后讨论了尺寸显着性如何对这一结果有所贡献。

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