• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >Do Positive Illusions Predict Overconfidence in Judgment? A Test Using Interval Production and Probability Evaluation Measures of Miscalibration
【24h】

Do Positive Illusions Predict Overconfidence in Judgment? A Test Using Interval Production and Probability Evaluation Measures of Miscalibration

机译：正幻觉是否可以预测审判的过度自信？使用间隔生产和误判概率评估方法的检验

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

We address the question as to whether judgmental overconfidence, as assessed by probability miscalibration, is related to positive illusions about the self. We first demonstrate that judgmental overconfidence measured with interval production procedures can be considered a trait, due to correlations observed in miscalibration scores in two sets of general-knowledge questions of varying difficulty administered at different times. In addition, the hard-easy effect operated in different ways on over-precision and self-placement of one's performance relative to others: The more difficult the calibration task, the greater the over precision but the greater the under placement of one's performance. Finally, there was no evidence that miscalibration was related to dispositional optimism and self-efficacy. A second study extended these results by including further measures of disposition to experience positive illusions such as unrealistic optimism, a general tendency to consider oneself "better-than-average," and two indexes of dispositional perception of control. The positive illusion measures showed considerable inter-correlations, but did not correlate with miscalibration on the interval production task, and correlated negatively with optimism concerning societal risks. A final study replicated this pattern of findings, but showed that disposition to positive illusions did predict miscalibration on the same questions measured with a probability evaluation technique. Our research demonstrates that "overconfidence" is not a unitary construct, but a series of overlapping ones.
机译：我们解决了一个问题，即通过概率错误校准评估得出的判断过度自信是否与对自我的积极幻想有关。我们首先证明，用间隔生产程序来衡量的判断过度自信可以被认为是一种特质，这是由于在两组在不同时间管理的具有不同难度的普通知识问题中，在错误校准分数中观察到的相关性。此外，相对于其他人而言，对个人绩效的过高精确度和自我放置的难易效应以不同的方式发挥作用：校准任务越困难，过精确度越大，但个人绩效的欠缺就越大。最后，没有证据表明错误校准与性格乐观和自我效能感有关。第二项研究扩展了这些结果，包括采取其他处置措施，以体验积极的幻觉，例如不切实际的乐观情绪，认为自己“高于平均水平”的一般倾向以及控制倾向的两个指标。积极的错觉测度显示出很大的相互关系，但与间歇性生产任务中的错误校准无关，而与对社会风险的乐观则负相关。最终研究复制了这种发现模式，但显示出对积极幻觉的倾向确实预测了使用概率评估技术测量的相同问题的校准错误。我们的研究表明，“过度自信”不是一个统一的结构，而是一系列重叠的结构。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号