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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >Probabilistic Reasoning in Prediction and Diagnosis: Effects of Problem Type, Response Mode, and Individual Differences
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Probabilistic Reasoning in Prediction and Diagnosis: Effects of Problem Type, Response Mode, and Individual Differences

机译：预测和诊断中的概率推理：问题类型，响应模式和个体差异的影响

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摘要

In prediction, subset relations require that the probability of conjoined events is never higher than that of constituent events. However, people's judgments regularly violate this principle, producing conjunction errors. In diagnosis, the probability of a hypothesis normatively is often higher for conjoined cues. An online survey used a within- subjects design to explore the degree to which participants (n = 347) differentiated diagnosis and prediction using matched scenarios and both choice and estimation responses. Conjunctions were judged more probable than a constituent in diagnosis (76%) more often than prediction (64%) and in choice (84%) more often than direct estimation (57%), with no interaction of type of task and response mode. Correlation, regression, and path analyses were used to determine the relationships among individual difference variables and the diagnosis and prediction tasks. Among the correlation findings was that time spent on the task predicted higher conjunction probabilities in diagnosis but not prediction and that class inclusion errors predicted increased conjunction errors in choice but not estimation. Need for cognition and numeracy were only minimally related to reasoning about conjunctions. Results are consistent with the idea that people may misapply diagnostic reasoning to the prediction task and consequently commit the conjunction error.
机译：在预测中，子集关系要求关联事件的概率永远不高于组成事件的概率。但是，人们的判断经常违反这一原则，产生连词错误。在诊断中，对于关联线索，通常假设的可能性更高。一项在线调查使用受试者内部设计来探索参与者（n = 347）使用匹配的情景以及选择和估计响应来区分诊断和预测的程度。连词在诊断（76％）的可能性比预测（64％）的可能性高，并且在选择（84％）的可能性比直接估计（57％）的可能性高，且任务类型和响应模式没有交互作用。相关性，回归和路径分析用于确定各个差异变量与诊断和预测任务之间的关系。相关发现中，花费在任务上的时间预测出诊断中较高的结伴概率，但不能预测，类别包含错误预测出选择中的结伴误差增加，但不能估计。认知和计算的需求仅与与连词的推理息息相关。结果与人们可能将诊断推理错误地应用于预测任务并因此导致合取错误的想法一致。

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