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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >Do Military Decision Makers Behave as Predicted by Prospect Theory?
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Do Military Decision Makers Behave as Predicted by Prospect Theory?

机译：军事决策者的行为是否符合预期理论？

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摘要

Four experiments were conducted to explore the robustness of risky choice framing among military decision makers. In the first experiment the original version of the Asian disease problem was administered. In contrast to Tversky and Kahneman's (1981) original findings, military decision makers were not influenced by the gain and loss framing. They demonstrated risk-seeking behavior in both domains. In the second experiment, we administered a military version of the Asian disease problem. We found a significant framing effect, but it was unidirectional: The decision makers were risk seeking in both domains, but significantly more risk seeking in the loss domain. To explore the strength of this risk-seeking preference, we altered the problem in a third experiment, making the risky alternative 12.5% less attractive than the certain one. Again, we found risk-seeking behavior in both domains. Finally, we explored reasons for these deviations from prospect theory by comparing the responses of business students and military officers. In this analysis, we observed significantly higher levels of self-efficacy in the military sample, as compared to the civil sample, and that the self-efficacy influenced risk seeking only in the military sample. In a post hoc analysis we also found that years of education reduced risk-seeking preference. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.
机译：进行了四个实验，以探索军事决策者之间风险选择框架的鲁棒性。在第一个实验中，使用了亚洲疾病问题的原始版本。与特维尔斯基和卡尼曼（Tversky and Kahneman，1981）的原始发现相反，军事决策者不受盈亏框架的影响。他们在两个领域都表现出寻求风险的行为。在第二个实验中，我们管理了亚洲疾病问题的军事版本。我们发现了显着的框架效应，但它是单向的：决策者在这两个领域都在寻求风险，但在损失领域却要寻求更多的风险。为了探索这种寻求风险偏好的强度，我们在第三个实验中更改了该问题，使该风险替代方案的吸引力比特定方案低12.5％。同样，我们在两个领域都发现了寻求风险的行为。最后，我们通过比较商科学生和军官的反应，探究了与前景理论相背离的原因。在此分析中，我们观察到与民用样本相比，军事样本中的自我效能水平显着更高，并且自我效能仅影响在军事样本中寻求风险。在事后分析中，我们还发现，多年的教育减少了寻求风险的偏好。讨论了未来研究的意义和方向。

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