• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy
【24h】

The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy

机译：经验在赌徒谬论中的作用

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Recent papers have demonstrated that the way people acquire information about a decision problem, by experience or by abstract description, can affect their behavior. We examined the role of experience over time in the emergence of the Gambler's Fallacy in binary prediction tasks. Theories of the Gambler's Fallacy and models of binary prediction suggest that recency bias, elicited by experience over time, may play a significant role. An experiment compared a condition where participants sequentially predicted the colored outcomes of a virtual roulette wheel spin with a condition where the wheel's past outcomes were presented all at once. In a third condition outcomes were presented sequentially in an automatic fashion without intervening predictions. Subjects were yoked so that the same history of outcomes was observed in all conditions. The results revealed the Gambler's Fallacy when outcomes were experienced (with or without predictions). However, the Gambler's Fallacy was attenuated when the same outcomes were presented all at once. Observing the Gambler's Fallacy in the third condition suggests that the presentation of information over time is a significant antecedent of the bias. A second experiment demonstrated that, while the bias can emerge with an all-at-once presentation that makes recent outcomes salient (Burns & Corpus, 2004), the bias did not emerge when the presentation did not draw attention to recent outcomes.
机译：最近的论文表明，人们通过经验或抽象描述获取有关决策问题的信息的方式会影响他们的行为。我们研究了随着时间的推移，经验在二进制预测任务中赌徒谬论的出现中所起的作用。赌徒谬论和二元预测模型的理论表明，随着时间的推移，经验引起的新近度偏差可能起重要作用。实验比较了参与者依次预测虚拟轮盘旋转的彩色结果与同时显示轮盘过去结果的条件。在第三种情况下，结果以自动方式顺序显示，而无需干预。受试者被轭住，以便在所有情况下都观察到相同的结局史。结果显示了当经历了结果（有或没有预测）时，赌徒的谬误。但是，如果一次都呈现相同的结果，则赌徒的谬论就会减弱。在第三个条件下观察赌徒的谬论表明，随着时间的流逝信息的呈现是偏见的重要先决条件。第二个实验表明，虽然偏向可以通过一次完整的演讲而出现，从而使近期的结果很突出（Burns＆Corpus，2004），但是当演讲不引起人们对近期结果的关注时，偏见就不会出现。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号