• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Behavioral Decision Making >Semantic Coherence and Fallacies in Estimating Joint Probabilities
【24h】

Semantic Coherence and Fallacies in Estimating Joint Probabilities

机译：估计联合概率时的语义连贯性和谬误

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In three experiments on joint probability estimation, gist representations were manipulated with analogies, and the suboptimal strategy of ignoring relevant denominators was counteracted with training in using 2×2 tables to clarify joint probability estimates. The estimated probabilities of two events, as well as their conjunctive and disjunctive probabilities, were assessed against two benchmarks, logical fallacies and semantic coherence-a constellation of estimates consistent with the relationship among sets. Fuzzy-trace theory (FTT) predicts that analogies will increase semantic coherence, and a table intervention affecting denominator neglect will both increase semantic coherence and reduce fallacies. In all three experiments, analogies increased semantic coherence. In both experiments training participants to use 2×2 tables, such tables reduced fallacies and increased semantic coherence. As the relations among sets in the problem materials progressed in cognitive complexity from identical sets, mutually exclusive sets, and subsets to overlapping sets, fallacies generally increased, and semantic coherence generally decreased. These findings indicate that denominator neglect is pervasive, but that it can be remedied with a straightforward intervention that clarifies relations among sets. Further, intuitive gist-based probability estimation can be improved through the use of simple analogies.
机译：在三个联合概率估计实验中，以类似方式操纵要点表示，并通过训练使用2×2表来澄清联合概率估计来抵消忽略相关分母的次优策略。根据两个基准（逻辑谬误和语义一致性）评估了两个事件的估计概率，以及它们的合取和析取概率，这是与集合之间的关系一致的一组估计。模糊痕迹理论（FTT）预测，类推会增加语义连贯性，而影响分母忽略的表格干预会增加语义连贯性并减少谬误。在所有三个实验中，类比都增加了语义连贯性。在两个实验中，训练参与者使用2×2表格，这样的表格减少了谬误并增加了语义连贯性。随着问题材料中集合之间的关系以认知复杂性从相同集合，互斥集合，子集到重叠集合的发展，谬误通常会增加，语义连贯性通常会下降。这些发现表明，分母的忽略是普遍存在的，但是可以通过直接干预来澄清集合之间的关系，从而对其进行补救。此外，可以通过使用简单的类比来改善基于直觉的基于要点的概率估计。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号