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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of building performance simulation >Total utility demand prediction system for dwellings based on stochastic processes of actual inhabitants
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Total utility demand prediction system for dwellings based on stochastic processes of actual inhabitants

机译：基于实际居民随机过程的住宅总公用事业需求预测系统

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摘要

This article describes a new methodology to calculate the likely utility load profiles (energy such as power, natural gas, space heating and cooling, and other thermal requirements, as well as city water) in a dwelling. This calculation takes into account the behavioural variations of the dwelling inhabitants. The proposed method contains a procedure for cooling load calculations based on a series of Monte Carlo simulations where the heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) on/off state and the indoor heat generation schedules are varied, time-step by time-step. A data set of time-varying inhabitant behaviour schedules, with a 15-min resolution, generated by the authors in previous studies and validated by a comparison analysis to several field measurement data sets, was integrated into the model. The established model, which is called the total utility demand prediction system, can be applied to, for example, likely estimation of an integrated space maximum requirement, such as the total load of a building or an urban area. In a series of numerical experiments, huge discrepancies were found between the conventional results and those considering the time-varying inhabitant behaviour schedules. In particular, deriving the dynamic state change, of having the HVAC on/off from the inhabitants' schedules, was found to be a significant factor in the maximum cooling and heating loads.
机译：本文介绍了一种新的方法，用于计算住宅中可能的公用事业负荷曲线（能源，例如电力，天然气，空间供暖和制冷以及其他热量需求以及城市用水）。该计算考虑了居民的行为变化。所提出的方法包含一个基于一系列蒙特卡洛模拟的冷负荷计算程序，在该模拟中，供暖，通风和空调（HVAC）的开/关状态和室内热量产生时间表都随着时间的推移而变化。由先前研究的作者生成并通过与多个现场测量数据集进行比较分析验证的具有15分钟分辨率的时变居民行为时间表数据集已集成到模型中。建立的模型，称为总公用事业需求预测系统，可以应用于，例如，可能估算的综合空间最大需求，例如建筑物或市区的总负荷。在一系列数值实验中，发现常规结果与考虑时变居民行为时间表的结果之间存在巨大差异。特别是，从居民的日程安排中打开/关闭HVAC，得出动态状态变化是最大制冷和供暖负荷的重要因素。

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