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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of business logistics >Exploring the Potential Effects of Forecaster Motivational Orientation and Gender on Judgmental Adjustments of Statistical Forecasts
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Exploring the Potential Effects of Forecaster Motivational Orientation and Gender on Judgmental Adjustments of Statistical Forecasts

机译：探索预报员的动机取向和性别对统计预报的判断调整的潜在影响

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摘要

The growing adoption of demand collaboration initiatives such as Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) has made judgmental adjustments of forecasts, an already widespread forecasting practice, an increasingly routine part of many logistics managers' responsibilities. This article investigates how logistics managers might improve forecast accuracy by judgmentally adjusting statistical forecasts and potential factors that may influence the effectiveness of such adjustments. In particular, our goal is to expand current knowledge in this area by focusing on individual differences, specifically motivation and gender, which have been thus far neglected in the extant literature. Our findings indicate that motivation has a significant effect on accuracy improvement and this relationship is moderated by gender. Managerial implications of these findings and future research opportunities are also presented.
机译：诸如协作计划，预测和补货（CPFR）之类的需求协作计划的采用日趋广泛，已经对预测进行了判断性的调整，这已经是一种广泛的预测实践，已成为许多物流经理职责中越来越例行的一部分。本文研究了物流管理人员如何通过判断性地调整统计预测和可能影响此类调整有效性的潜在因素来提高预测准确性。尤其是，我们的目标是通过关注个体差异（尤其是动机和性别）来扩展该领域的当前知识，而这些差异是现有文献中迄今为止所忽略的。我们的发现表明，动机对提高准确性有重要影响，并且这种关系可以通过性别来调节。还介绍了这些发现的管理意义和未来的研究机会。

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