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>IS LIBER-REALISM ON THE HORIZON? RULE, SERICA! SERICA RULES THE WAVES? PRIVATE SECTOR MANAGEMENT APPROACHES TO EXPLAINING THEN DEESCALATING CONFLICT AND CONFRONTATION ALONG THE WESTERN PACIFIC RIM
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IS LIBER-REALISM ON THE HORIZON? RULE, SERICA! SERICA RULES THE WAVES? PRIVATE SECTOR MANAGEMENT APPROACHES TO EXPLAINING THEN DEESCALATING CONFLICT AND CONFRONTATION ALONG THE WESTERN PACIFIC RIM
Before and since America's "pivot to Asia" tensions have escalated across the Western Pacific rim from the Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea, to the Philippine Sea, sometimes without clear explanation. The People's Republic of China ("China") appears to be the common denominator to much of this conflict, although it tended to blame the United States, at least before several Western European nations entered the fray in June 2016. An overlooked explanation is easy to understand: sensing an unwelcomed slowdown in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and parallel decline in both Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and manufacturing (assembly) contracts with the West, accompanied by a significant increase in Chinese labour cost and accompanying rise of a Chinese middle class, paralleled by development across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, China is positioning itself to become the "shipper of the world" even if it stops being "factory to the world," and to regulate products that are shipped through Western Pacific waterways, such as between Japan and India and between the ASEAN countries and Europe. China's state-owned cargo shipping lines such as COSCO, CSCL, Sinotrans, are expanding capacity notwithstanding their increasing dependence upon state subsidies, potentially at the expense of Taiwan's Evergreen container lines, Japan's Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK) and Kawasaki Risen Kaisha, Ltd. ("K-Line"), South Korea's Hanjin, Hyundai HMM, KMTC Lines, and China is raising the volume of its rhetoric condemning real or imaginary shipments of armaments from Japan to India and elsewhere. Governments can intervene only to an optimum extent without producing open warfare. Private sector firms that manufacture products in China or purchase products made in China or in neighboring nations along the Pacific rim can become more active by insisting upon freedom of navigation in open international waterways, enforceable rules of maritime passage, unobstructed supply chain management to and from Asian ports, tied to unobstructed payments across global banking channels and networks. This is not the time for a Sino-American or an Eurasian arms race. It is past time but not too late for intervention by private corporations whose stake in the outcome of these tensions is enormous. Is the 21st century facing a prospect that "Serica rules the waves" much as "Britannia" did or claimed to do in the 19th century, "Serica" being the name the Romans used for China meaning "Land of Silk"? Is there emerging on horizon a new international relations theory. Call it "Liber-Realism " or "Liberealism "?
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