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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Business Research >Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market
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Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market

机译：使用扩散模型预测新兴市场的市场规模，并将其应用于中国汽车市场

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Marketing managers have to forecast the market size and this forecast guides strategic decisions whether to continue exporting, open new factories or expand existing production operations. Forecasting sales and the market size is a challenging task; even more so in emerging markets where data is limited and the market demand is changeable. This research proposes a novel approach that applies diffusion models using car ownership data to forecast car sales. Car ownership data may be easier to access than sales data in emerging markets but marketing managers are more interested in the sales forecast. Researchers propose using diffusion models to forecast the adoption of new products or products which are new to consumers in a market This research demonstrates that marketing managers can use diffusion models to predict car sales in China where cars are new products to most consumers in this market. Since the majority of car buyers in China are first time buyers, car manufacturers and retailers must also forecast when the market composition will change. This effectively means predicting when first time car buying will start to slow down and repeat/replacement purchase or second hand car purchase will become more important. To forecast both sales and market composition change, marketing managers must choose a robust model. Managers want insights from models that have been tested robustly especially in less stable market conditions. In this context, this study illustrates the value of using a rolling forecast instead of a fixed horizon approach when comparing and choosing which model to use to forecast both sales and market composition change for the Chinese car market.
机译：市场经理必须预测市场规模，而该预测将指导战略决策，是继续出口，开设新工厂还是扩大现有生产运营。预测销售和市场规模是一项艰巨的任务。在数据有限且市场需求多变的新兴市场中尤其如此。这项研究提出了一种新颖的方法，该方法将使用汽车拥有量数据的扩散模型应用于预测汽车销量。汽车所有权数据可能比新兴市场中的销售数据更易于访问，但是市场经理对销售预测更感兴趣。研究人员建议使用扩散模型来预测市场上对消费者而言新产品或新产品的采用情况。这项研究表明，营销经理可以使用扩散模型来预测中国的汽车销量，因为汽车是该市场上大多数消费者的新产品。由于中国的大多数购车者是首次购车者，因此汽车制造商和零售商还必须预测市场组成何时改变。这实际上意味着预测首次购车何时将开始放缓，而重复/替换购买或二手车购买将变得更加重要。为了预测销售和市场构成的变化，营销经理必须选择一个可靠的模型。经理们希望从经过严格测试的模型中获得见识，尤其是在不稳定的市场条件下。在这种情况下，本研究说明了在比较和选择用于预测中国汽车市场销售和市场构成变化的模型时，使用滚动预测而不是固定水平方法的价值。

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