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Realizing the value of extensive replication: A theoretically robust portrayal of double jeopardy

机译：实现广泛复制的价值：理论上双重危险的稳健刻画

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摘要

Researchers have spent almost 50 years developing, refining and applying the NBD-Dirichlet in repeat purchase markets, in particular with extensive replication of the Goodhardt, Ehrenberg, and Chatfield (1984) model. Recent research that employs a double jeopardy (DJ) line appears to have progressed with little regard for this body of theory. This paper reviews the varied applications of the NBD-Dirichlet and extends the theory to the portrayal of a double jeopardy line. This DJ line, an x-y plot of brands' penetration versus purchase frequency in a category, is tested against three alternative ways of drawing the line. A linear model for double jeopardy is adequate when used under limited conditions yet the model breaks down with a broad scope of analysis. This meta-analysis of 37 cross-sectional product categories and a 40-period (quarters) longitudinal dataset evaluates the best approximation of the DJ line to empirical data. Double Jeopardy then appears as an upward sloping curve, rather than a DJ line. The NBD-Dirichlet provides for a theoretically sound, versatile method whose parameters have intuitive meanings regarding seasonality, category acceptance and category loyalty.
机译：研究人员花了近50年的时间开发，改进和应用NBD-Dirichlet在重复购买市场，尤其是广泛复制了Goodhardt，Ehrenberg和Chatfield（1984）模型。近期采用双重危险（DJ）线的研究似乎已经取得进展，对这种理论体系的关注很少。本文回顾了NBD-Dirichlet的各种应用，并将该理论扩展到双重危险线的刻画。此DJ线是品牌渗透率与某类别中购买频率的x-y曲线图，并针对三种绘制线的方法进行了测试。当在有限的条件下使用时，双重危险的线性模型是足够的，但是该模型由于分析范围广泛而无法使用。对37个横截面产品类别和40个周期（季度）纵向数据集的荟萃分析评估了DJ线与经验数据的最佳近似。然后，“双重危险”显示为向上倾斜的曲线，而不是DJ线。 NBD-Dirichlet提供了一种理论上合理，通用的方法，其参数在季节性，类别接受度和类别忠诚度方面具有直观的含义。

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