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Diffusion models of mobile telephony

机译：移动电话的扩散模型

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Growth models are applicable to mobile telephony diffusion. Although cross-sectional performance comparisons of models are numerous, varying stages of the S-shaped diffusion curve have not been analyzed by longitudinal studies. This study determines whether the best model applies to an entire diffusion life span. Mobile telephone subscriber data forTaiwan during 1988-2007 are analyzed to compare the performance of three popular diffusion models and one well-known forecasting model-the Gompertz, Logistic, Bass, and time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the Gompertz model outperforms the other models before diffusion take-off, and the Logistic model is superior after inflection and over the aggregate range of the diffusion. Network externalities are the dynamics of the Logistic model and account for its excellence. This longitudinal study is the first to present empirical evidence indicating that the appropriate diffusion model for mobile telephony is stage-dependent, complementing the case dependency of the appropriate diffusion model demonstrated by cross-sectional studies.
机译：增长模型适用于移动电话传播。尽管模型的横截面性能比较很多，但纵向研究尚未分析S形扩散曲线的不同阶段。这项研究确定了最佳模型是否适用于整个扩散寿命。分析了1988-2007年台湾的移动电话订户数据，以比较三种流行的扩散模型和一种著名的预测模型-Gompertz，Logistic，Bass和时间序列自回归移动平均（ARMA）模型的性能。经验结果表明，Gompertz模型在扩散起飞之前的表现优于其他模型，而Logistic模型在拐点之后且在扩散的总范围内表现优异。网络外部性是Logistic模型的动力，并说明了其卓越性。这项纵向研究是首次提供经验证据，表明适用于移动电话的适当扩散模型是阶段依赖性的，补充了横断面研究证明的适当扩散模型的大小写依赖性。

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