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Identification and analysis of industry cycles

机译:识别和分析行业周期

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Ever since Schumpeter first identified industry cycles as the characteristic form of capitalist development, with upturns creating opportunities for profit and downturns providing scope for restructuring, the topic has attracted occasional interest by business researchers - but never the sustained interest that the subject warrants. Most studies in cyclical dynamics focus on the macroeconomy, and largely deal with forecasting. This article focuses by contrast on cyclical dynamics at the sectoral level, where cyclical upturns and downturns create essential and unavoidable strategic issues for management. This introductory paper discusses the fundamentals of industry cycle identification, and analysis in both the time domain and the frequency domain with a view to drawing strategic insights. The study illustrates these approaches with industrial data from the global semiconductor industry. The argument is that the study of cyclical industrial dynamics provides the foundation for wider studies of innovation and technology management.
机译:自从熊彼特首次将产业周期确定为资本主义发展的特征形式以来,经济好转为获利创造了机会,经济低迷为重组提供了空间,此话题偶尔引起商业研究人员的兴趣,但从未引起该主题的持续兴趣。周期性动力学的大多数研究都集中在宏观经济上,并且主要涉及预测。相比之下,本文重点关注部门级别的周期性动态,周期性的上升和下降为管理创造了必不可少的战略问题。本介绍性文章讨论了产业周期识别的基础,并在时域和频域进行了分析,以期获得战略见解。该研究通过全球半导体行业的工业数据说明了这些方法。有论点认为,周期性产业动力学的研究为更广泛的创新和技术管理研究提供了基础。

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