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The effect of the New Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe

机译：新丝绸之路铁路对中欧贸易总额的影响

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摘要

'One Belt One Road' is an extensive and complex initiative whose potential effect and influence are still currently pending for answers. This paper addresses the following research question: What is the effect of the New Silk Road intercontinental railways on the trade between China and its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe? We focus on nine railway lines connecting Europe and China, which started operations between 2011 and 2015. The countries' trade patterns with railway connections to China are then compared to the countries without railway connections to China. We find the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China's exports to its trading partners in Central Asia and Europe, especially concerning exports of manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Moreover, the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on China's imports of food and live animals from its trading partners.
机译：“一带一路”是一项广泛而复杂的倡议，其潜在影响和影响目前仍在等待答案。本文提出以下研究问题：新丝绸之路洲际铁路对中国及其在中亚和欧洲贸易伙伴之间的贸易产生什么影响？我们专注于连接欧洲和中国的9条铁路线，这条铁路线于2011年至2015年开始运营。然后，将这些国家与中国有铁路连接的贸易方式与没有中国与铁路连接的国家进行比较。我们发现，洲际铁路对中国向中亚和欧洲贸易伙伴的出口产生积极影响，特别是在制成品，机械和运输设备以及其他制成品的出口方面。此外，洲际铁路对中国从贸易伙伴那里进口的食品和活体动物具有积极影响。

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