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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Cleaner Production >Integrating Life Cycle Assessment and Agent-Based Modeling: A Dynamic Modeling Framework for Sustainable Agricultural Systems
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Integrating Life Cycle Assessment and Agent-Based Modeling: A Dynamic Modeling Framework for Sustainable Agricultural Systems

机译：整合生命周期评估和基于主体的建模：可持续农业系统的动态建模框架

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摘要

As food demand increases, it is critical to develop effective strategies and evaluate their potential in reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental footprints of large-scale agricultural systems. This study addresses the challenge by developing a dynamic system modeling framework integrating Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), and Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA). LCA and TEA were coupled with dynamic simulation models of crop yields, costs, and prices, allowing for the estimation of life-cycle environmental impacts and profitability of crop planting activities under changing climate and economic conditions. The framework was demonstrated by a case study for an agricultural system, including 1,000 farms in the United States over a 30-year time frame. The results indicated that information exchange among farmers, farmers' environmental awareness, access to environmental information, and farm size are key factors driving the system's environmental impacts. The results can provide a broad range of stakeholders (e.g., policymakers, nonprofits, agriculture companies) with insightful information to tailor their strategies for effectively managing the environmental footprints of large-scale agricultural systems. The integrated modeling framework has the potential to address sustainability challenges in other systems that are dynamic, involve human behaviors, and have complex interactions among human and nature systems. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：随着粮食需求的增加，制定有效的策略并评估其在减少温室气体（GHG）排放和大规模农业系统的其他环境足迹方面的潜力至关重要。本研究通过开发集成了生命周期评估（LCA），基于代理的建模（ABM）和技术经济分析（TEA）的动态系统建模框架来应对挑战。 LCA和TEA结合了作物产量，成本和价格的动态仿真模型，可以估算生命周期对环境的影响以及在气候和经济条件变化下的作物种植活动的获利能力。一项针对农业系统的案例研究证明了该框架，该研究在30年的时间范围内包括美国的1000个农场。结果表明，农民之间的信息交流，农民的环境意识，获得环境信息的机会以及农场规模是推动该系统对环境产生影响的关键因素。结果可以为广泛的利益相关者（例如决策者，非营利组织，农业公司）提供有见地的信息，以量身定制有效管理大型农业系统环境足迹的策略。集成的建模框架具有解决其他动态系统，涉及人类行为以及人与自然系统之间复杂的交互作用的可持续性挑战的潜力。 （C）2019 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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