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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Cleaner Production >How China's current carbon trading policy affects carbon price? An investigation of the Shanghai Emission Trading Scheme pilot
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How China's current carbon trading policy affects carbon price? An investigation of the Shanghai Emission Trading Scheme pilot

机译：中国当前的碳交易政策如何影响碳价格？上海市排放交易计划试点情况调查

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To better establish a unified carbon market in China, this study evaluates the effect of current carbon trading policy and further investigates the relationship between such policy that is published during the second phase of Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange (SEEE) and Shanghai Emission Allowance (SHEA) price. We aim to analyze whether these policies can improve the operation efficiency of current carbon market. By the Mean Reversion Test, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) Model, and Event Study Method, we first analyze the potential price discovery function of SHEA products, thereby describing the transmission channel of current policy to SHEA price. Then we examine the effect of carbon policies published in different periods on their corresponding SHEA price. By the Auto-correlation Test and CIR simulation, we find that 3/4 of all auto-correlation values are less than 0 after Apr. 2017, and the minimum cumulative error is 31.3792 under the supply and demand channel. These findings imply that SHEA price has the discovery function at the middle and end of trading period, and the current policy affects SHEA price through its effect on the fundamentals of supply and demand. Further, more than 60% of all r-values (r-value that reflects the response of price to policy) are less than 1, which implies that the published policy will improves future SHEA price. Accordingly, we argue that SEEE belongs to a policy-oriented market, and the change of carbon price is closely related to emission allocation policies. In this case, China's government should further push forward the smooth operation of current carbon market by the aid of incentive policy in the coming period. (c) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：为了更好地建立中国统一的碳市场，本研究评估了当前碳交易政策的效果，并进一步调查了在上海环境与能源交易所（SEEE）第二阶段发布的此类政策与上海排放配额（SHEA）之间的关系。 ） 价钱。我们旨在分析这些政策是否可以提高当前碳市场的运营效率。通过均值回归检验，Cox-Ingersoll-Ross（CIR）模型和事件研究方法，我们首先分析了SHEA产品的潜在价格发现功能，从而描述了当前政策对SHEA价格的传导渠道。然后，我们研究了不同时期发布的碳政策对其相应的SHEA价格的影响。通过自相关测试和CIR模拟，我们发现2017年4月之后所有自相关值的3/4都小于0，并且在供求渠道下的最小累积误差为31.3792。这些发现表明，SHEA价格在交易周期的中后期具有发现功能，并且当前政策通过其对供需基本面的影响而影响SHEA价格。此外，所有r值中的60％以上（反映价格对政策响应的r值）均小于1，这意味着已发布的政策将改善未来的SHEA价格。因此，我们认为SEEE属于以政策为导向的市场，碳价格的变化与排放分配政策密切相关。在这种情况下，中国政府应在未来一段时间内借助激励政策进一步推动当前碳市场的平稳运行。 （c）2018 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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