The shale gas boom in the US: Productivity shocks and price responsiveness

Chen Yan; Xu Jintao

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The shale gas boom in the US: Productivity shocks and price responsiveness

机译：美国的页岩气繁荣：生产力冲击和价格响应性

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Many studies have been focusing on the impact of the shale gas boom on our society, but the reverse relationship is not well documented. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of oil and gas prices on shale gas drilling activities. We analyze the well-level production data from all major producing shale gas plays in the United States (US) and identify a major productivity shock in 2009. We then estimate the price elasticity of shale gas drilling using the econometric methods. Our results show that the oil price elasticity increases from insignificant in the pilot stage (2000-2008) to 1.1 (significant) in the expansion stage (2009-2016), and the gas price elasticity increases from insignificant in the pilot stage to 0.6 (significant) in the expansion stage. This is the first quantitative estimation of shale gas drilling responsiveness to oil and gas prices based on near-full-sample well-level drilling data while taking account the structural break. The change in price elasticities indicates that the shale gas drilling becomes more responsive to oil and gas prices after the major productivity shock around 2009. The high oil-price elasticity after 2009 shows the importance of natural gas condensate in supporting shale gas drilling. The estimated oil and gas elasticities are important to forecasting shale gas supply and economic impacts in the new normal. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

机译：许多研究一直专注于页岩气繁荣对我们社会的影响，但反向关系并未充分记录。本文的目的是研究石油和天然气价格对页岩气钻探活动的影响。我们分析了来自美国（美国）所有主要生产页岩气体的井级生产数据，并在2009年确定了重大生产力震动。然后，我们使用经济学方法估计页岩气钻的价格弹性。我们的研究结果表明，在扩建阶段（2009-2016）中的试验阶段（2000-2008）中的石油价格弹性在1.1（重大）中增加（2009 - 2016年），燃气价格弹性在试验台中的微不足道增加至0.6（膨胀阶段中的重要性。这是基于近乎全样的井级钻井数据的基于近全样井钻取数据，首次定量估算页岩气钻探对石油和天然气价格的响应性，同时考虑到结构突破。价格弹性的变化表明，在2009年的重大生产率震动之后，页岩气钻孔对石油和天然气价格变得更加响应。2009年后的高油价弹性表明天然气冷凝物在支持页岩气钻时的重要性。估计的石油和气体弹性对预测新正常的页岩气供应和经济影响是重要的。（c）2019 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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来源
《Journal of Cleaner Production》 |2019年第20期|399-411|共13页
作者
Chen Yan; Xu Jintao;
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作者单位

Peking Univ Coll Environm Sci & Engn Beijing 100871 Peoples R China;

Peking Univ Natl Sch Dev Beijing 100871 Peoples R China;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Shale gas; Elasticity; Oil price; Gas price; Supply;

机译：页岩气;弹性;油价;天然气价格;供应;

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1. The shale gas boom in the US: Productivity shocks and price responsiveness [J] . Chen Yan, Xu Jintao Journal of Cleaner Production . 2019,第AUGa20期

机译：美国的页岩气热潮：生产率冲击和价格响应
2. Negative oil price shocks transmission: The comparative effects of the GFC, shale oil boom, and Covid-19 downturn on French gasoline prices [J] . Boroumand Raphael Homayoun, Porcher Thomas, Urom Christian Research in International Business and Finance . 2021,第Deca期

机译：负油价冲击变速器：GFC，页岩油繁荣和Covid-19对法国汽油价格的比较效果
3. Local labor market shocks and residential mortgage payments: Evidence from shale oil and gas booms [J] . McCollum Meagan, Upton Gregory B. Jr. Resource and energy economics . 2018,第期

机译：当地劳动力市场冲击和住宅抵押贷款：来自页岩油和天然气蓬勃发展的证据
4. Firm Dynamics and Local Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Shale Oil and Gas Boom [C] . Ryan A.Decker, Meagan McCollum, Gregory B.UptonJr. IAEE International Conference . 2019

机译：公司动态和地方经济冲击：来自页岩油和天然气繁荣的证据
5. The responsiveness of prices to aggregate technology shocks and monetary policy shocks [D] . Paciello, Luigi 2008

机译：价格对综合技术冲击和货币政策冲击的反应
6. The Shale Gas Boom and the Need for Rational Policy [O] . Madelon Finkel, Jake Hays, Adam Law 2013

机译：页岩气繁荣与对合理政策的需求
7. We analyze, in this paper, a DSGE New Keynesian model with indi- visible labor where firms may belong to two different final goods producing sectors one where wages and employment are determined in competitive labor markets and the orther where wages and employment are the result of a contractual process between unions and firms. Bargaining between firms and monopoly unions implies real wage rigidity in the model and, in turn, an endogenous trade-off between output stabilization and infla- tion stabilization. We show that the negative effect of a productivity shock on inflation and the positive effect of a cost-push shock is crucially determined by the proportion of firms that belong to the competitive sec- tor. The larger is this number, the smaller are these effects. We derive a welfare based objective function as a second order Taylor approxima- tion of the expected utility of the economy's representative agent and we analyze optimal monetary policy. We show that the larger is the num- ber of firms that belong to the competitive sector, the smaller should be the response of the nominal interest rate to exogenous productivity and cost-push shocks. If we consider, however, an instrument rule where the interest rate must react to inflationary expectations, the rule is not af- fected by the structure of the labor market. The results of the model are consistent with a well known empirical regularity in macroeconomics, i.e. that employment volatility is larger than real wage volatility. [O] . Lorenza Rossi, Fabrizio Mattesini 100

机译：在本文中，我们分析了DsGE新凯恩斯主义模型，该模型具有明显的劳动力，其中企业可能属于两个不同的最终产品生产部门，其中工资和就业是在竞争性劳动力市场中确定的，而工资和就业是由工资和就业导致的。工会和公司之间的合同过程。企业和垄断联盟之间的讨价还价意味着模型中的实际工资刚性，反过来，产出稳定和通货膨胀稳定之间的内生权衡。我们表明，生产率冲击对通货膨胀的负面影响以及成本推动冲击的积极影响，主要取决于属于竞争部门的企业比例。这个数字越大，这些效果越小。我们得出一个基于福利的目标函数作为经济代理人的预期效用的二阶泰勒近似，我们分析最优货币政策。我们表明，属于竞争性行业的企业数量越大，名义利率对外生生产率和成本推动冲击的反应就越小。但是，如果我们考虑利率必须对通胀预期作出反应的工具规则，则该规则不受劳动力市场结构的影响。该模型的结果与宏观经济学中众所周知的经验规律一致，即就业波动率大于实际工资波动率。
8. Drilling Productivity Report for Key Tight Oil and Shale Gas Regions, February 2014. [R] . 2014

机译：2014年2月关键的致密油页岩气区钻井生产力报告。

The shale gas boom in the US: Productivity shocks and price responsiveness

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