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Inconsistency of economic growth and electricity consumption in China: A panel VAR approach

机译:中国经济增长和电力消费不一致:一个小组VAR方法

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摘要

China has the largest electricity system in the world, which is undergoing a critical market reform. Based on the panel data in 2000 to 2016 of China, this paper tries to explain theinconsistency between electricity consumption and economic growth. For example, in 2015, GDP growth rate was close to 6.9% but with only 2.9% growth in electricity consumption. However, in 2018, a 6.6% growth in GDP required an 8.5% electricity growth. The results explain the reasons for inconsistency and identify the key factors. We find that the increase in inventory, fixed capital and industrial electricity consumption will narrow the gap when economy grows faster than electricity consumption, and widen the gap on the contrary. Heterogeneity exists among regions, the model and variables seem most convincing in explaining the situation in the western region, which is most similar to the full sample of China. Feedback effect is also observed between electricity consumption and economic growth in most parts of China by Granger test. The findings provides suggestions for the policy makers in making power planning, in an effort to avoid large power shortage or surplus. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:中国拥有世界上最大的电力系统,正在进行一个关键的市场改革。根据2000年至2016年中国的面板数据,本文试图解释电力消费与经济增长之间的专制。例如,2015年,GDP增长率接近6.9%,但电力消耗增长只有2.9%。但是,在2018年,GDP增长6.6%需要电力增长8.5%。结果解释了不一致和识别关键因素的原因。我们发现,当经济增长比电力消耗速度快,加宽差距时,库存,固定资本和工业用电量的增加将缩小差距。在地区中存在异质性,模型和变量似乎最令人信服地解释西部地区的局势,这与中国的完整样本相似。 GRANGER测试在中国大多数地区的电力消费和经济增长之间也观察到反馈效果。这些调查结果为制定电力规划方面的决策者提供了建议,以避免大量的缺点或盈余。 (c)2019 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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