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Strategies for environmentally friendly development in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone based on scenario analysis

机译：基于场景分析的天山山区经济区环保发展策略

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摘要

The Belt and Road, introduced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, promotes economic cooperation among countries around the world, from Asia to Europe to Africa. The Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone (NTMEZ) is the largest economic belt in China, with a focus on development in the Belt and Road. Environmentally friendly development in the NTMEZ has important managerial, policy and research implications for other areas of the Belt and Road. This study assesses the environmental performances of the leading industries based on emission and energy-consumption intensities, using intensity comparison coefficients, and analyzes four scenarios of development: maintaining the current status, industrial restructuring, technological innovation, and developing eco-industrial parks, in the NTMEZ. The expectation is to provide useful scientific strategies for environmentally friendly development in the NTMEZ. Results show that the petrochemical, metallurgical, and energy-production industries are the main sources of industrial atmospheric pollutants (together accounting for around 89% of such pollution in the NTMEZ), and that the petrochemical and food industries are the main sources of industrial water pollution (together accounting for around 90%). The air and water pollution intensities for these industries are all higher than their respective national industrial averages. Scenario analysis show that Scenario 1 with no changes or measures increases chemical oxygen demand and sulfur dioxide emissions by 90.86% and 194.26% respectively by 2020, compared with 2014. Scenario 4, the ecoindustrial park, reduces emissions significantly by 2020 to 839% for COD and 8.78% for SO2, respectively, compared with 2014. Finally, strategies for achieving environmentally friendly developffient in the NTMEZ are suggested, focusing on industrial restructuring, eco-industrial parks and circular development, technological innovation, and energy restructuring. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：中国国家主席Xi Jinping于2013年推出的皮带和道路促进了世界各国之间的经济合作，从亚洲到欧洲到非洲。北部天山山区经济区（NTMEZ）是中国最大的经济带，专注于皮带和道路的发展。 NTMEZ的环保发展具有重要的管理，政策和研究对皮带和道路的其他领域的影响。本研究评估了使用强度比较系数的排放和能耗强度的领导行业的环境表演，并分析了四种发展方案：维持现状，产业结构调整，技术创新，发展生态工业园区ntmez。期望是为NTMEZ的环保发展提供有用的科学策略。结果表明，石化，冶金和能源生产行业是工业大气污染物的主要来源（在NTMEZ中占此类污染的约89％），而石化和食品工业是工业用水的主要来源污染（占90％左右）。这些行业的空气和水污染强度都高于各自的国家产业平均值。情景分析表明，与2014年相比，没有变化或措施的情景1，没有变化或措施的情况将化学需氧量和二氧化硫排放量分别将化学需氧和二氧化硫排放量增加了90.86％和194.26％。情景4，EcoIndustrial Park，鳕鱼的焦点明显减少了1020％至839％与2014年，SO2分别为8.78％。最后，提出了在NTMEZ中实现环保发展的策略，重点关注产业结构调整，生态工业园区和循环发展，技术创新和能源重组。 （c）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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