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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Cleaner Production >Decomposition of carbon emission and its decoupling analysis and prediction with economic development: A case study of industrial sectors in Henan Province
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Decomposition of carbon emission and its decoupling analysis and prediction with economic development: A case study of industrial sectors in Henan Province

机译：经济发展碳排放分解及其去耦分析及预测 - 以河南省工业部门为例

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The carbon emission from major sectors and key industries is the main source of regional carbon emission, which has caused severe climate anomalies. Decoupling analysis and prediction of carbon emissions are helpful to formulate effective carbon emission reduction targets and coordinate the relationship between carbon emission and economic development. Considering the differences between sectors, this paper selects 12 major industrial carbon emitting sectors in Henan Province as the research object, decomposes the carbon emission driving factors by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, analyzes the decoupling relationship of carbon emission and economic development by Tapio decoupling model, constructs a decoupling effort model by combining the LMDI method and Tapio decoupling model to analyze the influence of each effect on the decoupling relationship, and sets up baseline scenario, low carbon scenario and enhanced low carbon scenario to forecast carbon emission and its decoupling state with economic development by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model. It is concluded that the restraining effects of energy structure, energy intensity and industrial structure are increasing. The decoupling index between carbon emission and economic development of 12 sectors shows a downward trend. Both energy structure effect and energy intensity effect have made weak decoupling efforts, and the decoupling efforts of industrial structure effect were relatively small, especially in Ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry and other five sectors. In 2035, four sectors will achieve carbon neutralization and the overall decoupling effect of carbon emissions will be obvious. Finally, this paper puts forward some recommendations to promote carbon emission reduction.
机译：主要部门和关键行业的碳排放是区域碳排放的主要来源，导致严重的气候异常。去耦分析和对碳排放的预测有助于制定有效的碳排放减少目标并协调碳排放与经济发展之间的关系。考虑到部门之间的差异，本文选择了河南省12个主要的工业碳发射扇区作为研究对象，通过对数均值的分散（LMDI）方法分解碳排放驱动因子，分析了碳排放和经济发展的解耦关系Tapio解耦模型，通过组合LMDI方法和Tapio解耦模型来构造解耦努力模型，分析每种影响对解耦关系的影响，并建立基线场景，低碳情景，增强的低碳情景，以预测碳排放及其通过远程能源替代计划系统（LEAP）模型的经济发展脱耦状态。结论是，能量结构，能源强度和产业结构的抑制效果正在增加。 12个部门的碳排放与经济发展之间的去耦指数显示了下降趋势。能量结构效应和能量强度效应都使得疲软的解耦努力，产业结构效果的解耦力相对较小，特别是在黑色金属冶炼和压延工业等五个部门。在2035年，四个部门将实现碳中和，碳排放的总体解耦效果显而易见。最后，本文提出了一些建议，以促进碳排放减少。

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