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The new goods margin in new markets

机译：新市场中的新商品保证金

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摘要

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries' exports and imports growth during the 1995-2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics' main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics' share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns. School of Economics, UNSW Business School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, NSW, Australia; Department of Economics, Quinlan School of Business, Loyola University Chicago, 820 N. Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611, United States. (C) 2017 Association for Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：我们分析了1995-2008年期间新商品利润率在波罗的海国家进出口增长中的作用。使用Kehoe和Ruhl（2013）开发的方法，我们将一组最低贸易商品定义为1995年占进出口总额最低10％的那些商品，然后追踪其在包括波罗的海国家在内的多个市场的增长主要贸易伙伴，欧盟和俄罗斯。我们发现，到2008年，最少贸易的货物平均占波罗的海主要贸易伙伴出口总额的近50％。此外，我们发现，贸易最少的出口份额的增加与波罗的海国家实施贸易自由化改革的时机相吻合。最少贸易进口也以强劲的速度增长，但其增长低于出口的增长，仅略低于进口总额的四分之一，即约占出口总值的一半。此外，我们发现，在波罗的海国家加入欧盟前后，从欧盟15国和从俄罗斯进口的贸易最少的份额开始出现分歧，欧盟15国的份额增加，俄罗斯15国的份额下降。我们还发现，波罗的海地区的最低贸易额出口份额超过了中欧和东欧其他经济体。最后，在全球金融危机期间，波罗的海国家的新产品出口受到了明显影响。危机结束后，新产品出口增长的重启显示出不同的格局。新南威尔士大学，新南威尔士大学，新南威尔士大学商学院经济学院，澳大利亚新南威尔士州2052年；芝加哥洛约拉大学昆兰商学院经济系，美国伊利诺伊州60611，密歇根大道北820号。 （C）2017年比较经济研究协会。由Elsevier Inc.出版。保留所有权利。

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