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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Construction Research >PREDICTING PROJECT AND ACTIVITY DURATION FOR BUILDINGS IN THE UK
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PREDICTING PROJECT AND ACTIVITY DURATION FOR BUILDINGS IN THE UK

机译：预测英国建筑的项目和活动期限

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摘要

This paper reports on the development of a computer model that will predict both overall project and activity duration, based on a number of pre-determined project characteristics. Fifty-six programmes of work were obtained. The data from the programmes of work of fifty of these buildings, encompassing a total of 11 different project types, were analysed, and used to develop the proposed model. Multiple linear regression analysis of the data showed that the duration and time lags of between 20 (for a single storey building) and 39 (for a seven-storey building) standardised activity groups, can be predicted using combinations of the twenty one most influential project variables. The regression equations produced were tested on all of the activity groups for six new projects to determine their accuracy. The absolute percentage error in predicting overall duration varied between 0.38% and 6.68%. The mean absolute error in predicting the duration of activity groups varied between 1.38% and 22%. The accuracy in predicting overall duration was comparable with limited information available from previous studies, but the high level of detail in the programme generated means that the model is more flexible and capable of a broader range of applications than previous models.
机译：本文报告了计算机模型的开发，该模型将基于许多预定的项目特征来预测整个项目和活动的持续时间。获得了五十六项工作方案。分析了其中50座建筑物的工作计划中的数据，这些数据涵盖了总共11种不同的项目类型，并将其用于开发建议的模型。数据的多元线性回归分析显示，可以使用二十一个最具影响力的项目的组合来预测20个（对于单层建筑）到39个（对于七层建筑）标准化活动组的持续时间和时滞。变量。在六个新项目的所有活动组中测试了产生的回归方程，以确定其准确性。预测总持续时间的绝对百分比误差在0.38％和6.68％之间变化。预测活动组持续时间的平均绝对误差在1.38％和22％之间变化。预测总体工期的准确性与以前的研究所提供的有限信息相当，但是所生成程序中的高细节水平意味着该模型比以前的模型更具灵活性，并具有广泛的应用范围。

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