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The Impact of Online Consumer Reviews on Online Sales: The Case-Based Decision Theory Approach

机译：在线消费者评论对在线销售的影响：基于案例的决策理论方法

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摘要

In this paper, we conduct a two-stage study to examine whether and how consumer reviews influence other consumers. In the first stage, we utilize a difference-in-difference specification to identify the causal effect of online reviews on sales and apply the proposed model to electronic appliances on a large Chinese retail website. In the second stage, we design a computational model with agents guided by case-based decision theory and we calibrate the simulated market to the real data. The literature identifies two channels for the effect of reviews on sales: the awareness effect and the persuasive effect. We find evidence for both effects, but we find the persuasive effect is slightly larger than the awareness effect. This suggests that consumers who have had a bad experience should not hesitate to leave bad reviews. We also find evidence that consumers are concerned whether reviews are genuine, but that the method used by this website of tying a "user grade" to volume of previous purchases may be an effective way of communicating whether a reviewer is a genuine customer. We use the computational model to predict unobserved consumer behavior: consumers' loyalty. We find the loyalty of artificial consumers is relatively high but falls. We also believe the case-based decision theory simulation approach may help estimate other unobserved consumer behaviors.
机译：在本文中，我们进行了两阶段的研究，以检查消费者是否以及如何影响其他消费者。在第一阶段，我们利用差异差分规范来确定在线审查对销售的因果效果，并将拟议的模型应用于大型中国零售网站的电子设备。在第二阶段，我们设计具有基于案例决策理论的代理的计算模型，我们将模拟市场校准到实际数据。文献识别了两种渠道，以获得销售评论的影响：意识效应和有说服力。我们发现两种效果的证据，但我们发现有说服力效果略大于意识效应。这表明，由于经验不好的消费者应该毫不犹豫地留下不好的评论。我们还发现消费者担心的证据是审查是真实的，但本网站用来将“用户级”绑定到以前购买量的方法可能是传达审阅者是否是真正的客户的有效方式。我们使用计算模型来预测未观察的消费者行为：消费者的忠诚度。我们发现人造消费者的忠诚度相对较高，但下降。我们还认为基于案例的决策理论模拟方法可能有助于估计其他未观察的消费者行为。

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