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Will Households Change Their Saving Behaviour After the 'Great Recession'? The Role of Human Capital

机译:在“大萧条”之后,家庭会改变储蓄行为吗?人力资本的作用

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The "Great Recession" of 2007-2009 (Rampell 2009) had a devastating impact on personal finances, causing households to retrench by limiting spending and reducing indebtedness. One positive outcome-evaluated by some-has been a rise in the widely cited "personal saving rate" from historic lows set in the middle of the decade. This paper evaluates the reasons for the rebound in the saving rate by undertaking a new examination of the determinants of household saving. Extending previous work and making use of data inclusive of the turbulent 2000s decade, the analysis finds support for an inverse relationship between the personal saving rate and the return to home equity. New in the research is a similar finding of an inverse relationship between the personal saving rate and the return to household investment in human capital. The results are used to make alternative forecasts of the personal saving rate through 2020. The path of the household human capital return is found to be a key determinant of these forecasts.
机译:2007-2009年的“大萧条”(Rampell,2009年)对个人理财造成了毁灭性影响,导致家庭通过限制支出和减少债务而收缩。有人评价的一项积极成果是,被引用的“个人储蓄率”从十年中期所创的历史低点上升了。本文通过重新研究家庭储蓄的决定因素来评估储蓄率反弹的原因。分析扩展了以前的工作并利用了包括2000年代动荡的十年在内的数据,该分析为个人储蓄率与房屋净值回报之间的反比关系提供了支持。该研究的新发现是类似的发现,即个人储蓄率与家庭人力资本投资回报之间存在反比关系。该结果可用于预测到2020年的个人储蓄率。发现家庭人力资本回报的路径是这些预测的关键决定因素。

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