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A Model Fitting Approach to Depict the Global Textile Trade

机译：描述全球纺织品贸易的模型拟合方法

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摘要

Since the mercantilism era, economists have built up trade theories to explain the rationale and patterns of world trade. In this paper, the explanatory power of the international product life cycle (IPLC) theory for describing the trends and patterns of the global textile trade, one of the most geographically dispersed export items in both developed and developing countries/regions, is discussed. Data at SITC two-digit level (SITC 65) were collected and time series regressions were performed to analyze the value trends and world shares of textile exports from 1990 to 2000 for selected developed economies. It was found that some developed economies have increased their world shares in textile exports, which indicated that global trade shift in the textile industry may not follow what the IPLC has suggested.
机译：自重商主义时代以来，经济学家建立了贸易理论来解释世界贸易的原理和模式。本文讨论了国际产品生命周期（IPLC）理论对描述全球纺织品贸易的趋势和模式的解释力，这是发达国家和发展中国家/地区中地理分布最分散的出口项目之一。收集了SITC两位数水平的数据（SITC 65），并进行了时间序列回归分析，以分析选定发达经济体1990年至2000年纺织品出口的价值趋势和世界份额。结果发现，一些发达经济体增加了其在纺织品出口中的世界份额，这表明纺织业的全球贸易转移可能不会遵循国际劳工大会的建议。

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