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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Earthquake Engineering >OBTAINING PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES OF DISPLACEMENT ON A LANDSLIDE DURING FUTURE EARTHQUAKES
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OBTAINING PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES OF DISPLACEMENT ON A LANDSLIDE DURING FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

机译：在未来地震中获得滑坡位移的概率估计

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The assessment of earthquake triggered landslide hazard may be undertaken using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques. Probabilistic methods have been developed because much of the data can be considered as random variables where parameters such as the angle of internal friction and moisture content do not have a single fixed value but may assume any number of values across a range. This random variability can be modelled by a probability density function (PDF) which describes the relative likelihood that a random variable will assume a particular value. Instead of using just the average or expected value of an input parameter, the complete range of possible values can be used to estimate a range of possible outcomes. Thus the probability of a slope being unstable can be obtained rather than a single indicator of stability. Such probabilistic analyses allow for the incorporation of the likely variability of each parameter and therefore allow a more intimate assessment of slope stability to be derived. Utilising empirical relationships for calculating earthquake ground motions and associated slope displacement, an investigation was undertaken to identify the contribution that modern simulation techniques could make to the assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides. To achieve this, geotechnical and earthquake data obtained from a deep-seated landslide triggered during the M_W 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake was used. By incorporating the variability of the geotechnical parameters and the uncertainty in earthquake location the model derived the probabilities associated with increasing amounts of slope displacement during future probable earthquakes. Analysis was undertaken for four of the principal fault segments in the San Francisco Bay area. These estimates were then combined with the occurrence probabilities of the earthquakes to provide temporal estimates of displacement for a 30 year period. Results indicated that a M_W 7.0 earthquake located on the Peninsula Segment of the San Andreas fault was most hazardous with a 11% chance of minor slope displacement (≥ 0.10 m) and a 6% chance of moderate slope displacement (≥ 0.30 m) within the next 30 years.
机译：可以使用确定性和概率性技术对地震引发的滑坡灾害进行评估。已经开发了概率方法，因为许多数据可以被视为随机变量，其中诸如内摩擦角和水分含量之类的参数不具有单个固定值，而是可以假设一个范围内的任何数量的值。可以通过概率密度函数（PDF）对这种随机变异性进行建模，概率密度函数（PDF）描述了随机变量将采用特定值的相对可能性。代替仅使用输入参数的平均值或期望值，可以使用可能值的完整范围来估计可能结果的范围。因此，可以获得斜坡不稳定的可能性，而不是获得单一的稳定性指标。这样的概率分析考虑到了每个参数可能的可变性，因此可以得出更精确的边坡稳定性评估。利用经验关系来计算地震地面运动和相关的边坡位移，进行了一项调查，以确定现代模拟技术可以对地震触发的滑坡进行评估。为此，使用了从L_Prima 7.0级地震引发的深部滑坡获得的岩土和地震数据。通过综合岩土参数的变化和地震位置的不确定性，该模型得出了与未来可能发生的地震中边坡位移量增加有关的概率。对旧金山湾地区的四个主要断层段进行了分析。然后将这些估计值与地震的发生概率相结合，以提供30年期间的位移临时估计值。结果表明，位于圣安德烈亚斯断层半岛段的M_W 7.0级地震最危险，在该区域内发生11％的小边坡位移（≥0.10 m）和6％的中坡位移（≥0.30 m）机会。接下来的30年。

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