首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Earthquake Engineering >WHAT CAN BE CONCLUDED ABOUT SEISMIC HISTORY FROM BROKEN AND UNBROKEN SPELEOTHEMS?
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WHAT CAN BE CONCLUDED ABOUT SEISMIC HISTORY FROM BROKEN AND UNBROKEN SPELEOTHEMS?

机译:关于破碎和未破碎的弹性论,地震历史有什么结论?

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Is it really plausible that earthquakes break speleothems? May unbroken speleothems prove that no strong earthquake has ever occurred during a certain period of time? The mechanical behaviour of speleothems has been investigated through static bending tests performed on stalactites and soda straws. These tests give an indication not only of the mean tensile resistance, but also―more importantly―of its variation. In fact, it is this variation that makes it difficult to estimate the acceleration necessary to break an individual speleothem. That is why a statistical approach is mandatory. The potentially most vulnerable unbroken as well as broken stalactites were measured in a pilot cave (Milandre, Switzerland). Four classes of stalactites were defined, according to their shapes. For each of these classes, a vulnerability curve (probability of breaking as a function of peak ground acceleration) was obtained by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Dynamic amplification as well as heterogeneity of bending resistance within each speleothem were taken into account. Finally, an original statistical approach, valid for incomplete and imprecise data, was developed. This approach allowed to estimate the probability that at least one moderate earthquake has occurred in the past.
机译:地震破坏蛇麻岩真的合理吗?可以不间断的鞘血病证明在一段时间内没有发生过强烈地震吗?通过在钟乳石和苏打水上进行的静态弯曲测试,研究了蛇麻草的机械性能。这些测试不仅表明平均抗拉强度,而且更重要的是表明其变化。实际上,正是这种变化使得难以估计破坏单个脾动脉的必要加速度。这就是为什么必须采用统计方法的原因。在试点洞穴(瑞士米兰德)中测量了可能最脆弱的未破碎和破碎的钟乳石。根据其形状定义了四类钟乳石。对于这些类别中的每一个,都通过蒙特卡洛模拟获得了脆弱性曲线(作为地面加速度峰值的函数的断裂概率)。考虑了每个脾脏中的动态扩增以及抗弯强度的异质性。最后,开发了一种原始统计方法,适用于不完整和不精确的数据。这种方法可以估计过去至少发生过一次中度地震的可能性。

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