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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data
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What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data

机译：什么驱动器总投资？来自德国调查数据的证据

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摘要

The ifo Investment Survey asks firms in the German manufacturing sector about the importance of sales, technological factors, finance, return expectations, and macroeconomic policy for their investment activity in a given year. We show that these subjective investment determinants 1) capture economically what their labels suggest, and 2) have strong explanatory power for aggregate manufacturing investment growth fluctuations. In a second step, we use these determinants to identify aggregate demand and aggregate technology shocks and argue that the bulk of the variance of both aggregate manufacturing investment and output growth fluctuations (as much as approximately two thirds in both cases) is explained by aggregate demand shocks. Consistent with neoclassical views, however, technological factors are the most important investment determinant on average. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：IFO投资调查询问德国制造业的公司关于销售，技术因素，财务，回报和宏观经济政策在给定年份的投资活动的重要性。我们表明，这些主观投资决定因素1）在经济上捕捉其标签建议，2）具有强大的解释性，以便汇总制造业投资增长波动。在第二步中，我们使用这些决定因素来识别总需求和总技术冲击，并争辩说总体制造投资和产出增长波动（两种情况下大约三分之二）的大部分差异由总需求解释冲击。然而，与新古典主义观点一致，技术因素是平均最重要的投资决定因素。 （c）2020 Elsevier B.v.保留所有权利。

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