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Time-Varying Consumer Disagreement and Future Inflation

机译：时代的消费者分歧和未来的通货膨胀

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The inflation expectations of over 285 thousand consumers are used to develop 'model-free' estimates of the monthly cross-sectional mean, dispersion, asymmetry and extremeness of inflation expectations from 1995 to 2016. The moments provide a novel and direct measure of time-varying consumer disagreement about prices. I find that the higher-order cross-sectional moments of inflation expectations are highly informative about future inflation. In contrast to popular assumptions, these moments do not appear to be noise. Even after accounting for historical economic data, the 'unanticipated' components of the higher-order moments are significantly associated with future inflation. In effect, the higher order moments are neither noise nor conventional economic news. The results have significant implications for the widespread practice of trimming inflation expectations data. The results also have implications for the study of information rigidities, indicating that consumer inflation expectations broadly reflect two types of consumers. The first type update their information set at a much faster rate than is typically estimated or assumed. The second type have very high information rigidities and only update their information set in response to major economic events. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：超过285万消费者的通胀预期用于开发1995年至2016年通胀预期月横截面平均值，分散，不对称和极端的“无模型”估计。时刻提供了一种新颖和直接的时间 - 不同的消费者对价格的分歧。我发现通胀预期的高阶横断面时刻是对未来通胀的高度信息。与流行的假设相比，这些时刻似乎并不噪音。即使在核算历史经济数据后，高阶时刻的“意外”组件也与未来的通货膨胀有显着相关。实际上，较高的阶矩既不是噪音也不是传统的经济新闻。结果对修剪通胀预期数据的广泛实践具有显着影响。结果对信息刚性的研究也有影响，表明消费者通胀预期广泛反映了两种消费者。第一类更新其信息以比通常估计或假设的更快的速率设置。第二种类型具有非常高的信息刚性，并仅更新他们的信息，以响应主要的经济事件。 （c）2020 Elsevier B.v.保留所有权利。

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