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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >Strategic technology switching under risk aversion and uncertainty
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Strategic technology switching under risk aversion and uncertainty

机译：风险厌恶和不确定性下的战略技术转换

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Firms devising green investment strategies within a deregulated environment must take into account not only economic and technological uncertainty, but also strategic interactions due to competition. Also, further complicating green investment decisions is the fact that firms are likely to exhibit risk aversion, since alternative energy technologies entail risk that cannot be diversified. Therefore, we develop a utility-based, real options framework for pre-emptive and non-pre-emptive competition in order to analyse how economic and technological uncertainty interact with risk aversion to impact the adoption of an existing technology in the light of uncertainty over the arrival of an improved version. We confirm that greater risk aversion delays investment and show that technological uncertainty accelerates the follower's entry, delays the entry of the pre-emptive leader, and, intriguingly, does not affect the non-pre-emptive leader's investment decision. Also, we show how the relative loss in the leader's value due to the follower's entry is affected by economic and technological uncertainty as well as risk aversion, and how the risk of preemption under increasing economic uncertainty raises the value of direct investment in the new technology relative to stepwise investment. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.
机译：不仅在经济和技术不确定性方面设计设计的企业设计必须考虑到经济和技术不确定性，也必须由于竞争而导致战略互动。此外，绿色投资决策的进一步使企业可能表现出风险厌恶，因为替代能源技术需要无法多样化的风险。因此，我们开发了一个基于实用的真实选择框架，可用于先发制人和非先发制人的竞争，以分析经济和技术不确定性如何与风险厌恶相互作用，以影响现有技术的不确定性改进版本的到来。我们确认风险更大的风险厌恶延迟投资，并表明技术不确定性加速了追随者的入境，延迟了先发制人的领导者的进入，兴趣不影响非​​先发制人的领导者的投资决策。此外，我们展示了由于追随者入境导致领导者价值的相对损失是受经济和技术的不确定性以及风险厌恶的影响，以及如何在日益增长的经济不确定性下抢占的风险提高了新技术直接投资的价值相对于逐步投资。 （c）2020提交人。 elsevier b.v出版。

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