Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments

Hanaki Nobuyuki; Akiyama Eizo; Ishikawa Ryuichiro

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Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments

机译：激励价格预测的不同方式对资产市场实验中的市场动态和个人决策的影响

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In this study, we investigate (a) whether eliciting future price forecasts influences market outcomes and (b) whether differences in the way in which subjects are incentivized to submit "accurate" price forecasts influence market outcomes as well as the forecasts in an experimental asset market. We consider four treatments: one without forecast elicitation and three with forecast elicitation. In two of the treatments with forecast elicitation, subjects are paid based on their performance in both forecasting and trading, while in the other treatment with forecast elicitations, they are paid based on only one of those factors, which is chosen randomly at the end of the experiment. We found no significant effect of forecast elicitation on market outcomes in the latter case. Thus, to avoid influencing the behavior of subjects and market outcomes by eliciting price forecasts, paying subjects based on either forecasting or trading performance chosen randomly at the end of the experiment is better than paying them based on both. In addition, we consider forecast-only experiments: one in which subjects are rewarded based on the number of accurate forecasts and the other in which they are rewarded based on a quadratic scoring rule. We found no significant difference in terms of forecasting performance between the two. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

机译：在本研究中，我们调查（a）得出未来价格预测是否会影响市场结果，以及（b）激励对象提交“准确”价格预测的方式差异是否会影响市场结果以及实验资产的预测市场。我们考虑了四种治疗方法：一种没有预测诱发作用，而三种有预测诱发作用。在两种具有预测启发的处理中，将根据对象在预测和交易中的表现为其支付报酬，而在另一种具有预测诱导的处理中，则仅根据这些因素中的一个对他们进行支付，这些因素是在预测结束时随机选择的。本实验。在后一种情况下，我们发现预测启发对市场结果没有显着影响。因此，为了避免通过引发价格预测来影响主体的行为和市场结果，在实验结束时根据预测或交易表现随机选择支付主体比对两者进行支付更好。此外，我们考虑仅进行预测的实验：一个实验是根据准确的预测数对主题进行奖励，而另一个实验是根据二次评分规则对主题进行奖励。我们发现两者之间的预测效果没有显着差异。（C）2018 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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来源
《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》 |2018年第3期|51-69|共19页
作者
Hanaki Nobuyuki; Akiyama Eizo; Ishikawa Ryuichiro;
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作者单位

Univ Cote dAzur, CNRS, GREDEG, 250 Rue Albert Einstein, F-06560 Valbonne, France;

Univ Tsukuba, Fac Engn Informat & Syst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan;

Waseda Univ, Sch Int Liberal Studies, Tokyo, Japan;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Price forecast elicitation; Experimental asset markets;

机译：价格预测诱因;实验资产市场;

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Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments

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